My Political Analysis
Evaluation of Election Results
I have left out several guys who were instrumental in bringing a significant change in our politics.
This is how Niragamikayo treat Buddhist monk in Prison. There is a Real Danger for Pnanasara Himi in Prison.
As
far as I gather this Himi has not been imprisoned under murder charges
but he is treated like a serial killer or somebody like Jack the Ripper.
He is being kept with serial killers.
This is how the criminal law is practiced in Ceylon.
What is the response of our Cardinal?
He must be happy Now.
Chintana Dharmadhsa "Nohoth Padadaya" is working for Ranil "Nohoth CIA Agent".
"Mun Okkhoma Dhesha Drohiyo".
Ali
Rajah (LTTE Vestige but currently Active) Subhashwaran, financing "Rani"
film to belittle our "Rana Wiruwan" or our brave soldiers.
Anura has taken the lead bait and he will be demolished on his own accord.
"Anne Modayo Dan Mokada Karranne?"
"Anurawa Hakkhe Thiyala Chappa Karala Danawa Mun Tika".
That is the master plan.
Aiyeh Minihagen Ganna Deyak Nathi Hindha Minihava Billy Denna Hadhanne.
Anne Pavve Meyahh!
1. Dharshana Hapangoda in his inimitable way introduce guys to the global audience.
He is unique.
When nobody dared he antagonized Rajapaksas.
That was the beginning.
I think he had a tough time under them.
Having said that he gave a fair chance to all political views including that actor guy, Kamal Addharaarachchi.
2. Champika Ranawake
He is the duplicate CIA agent only second to Ranil.
A dangerous guy.
Intelligent and educated guy with the knowledge about Katubeddha student activities.
He should study Peradeniya University students' activities like Kumar David.
3. Ravi Kumudesh
Ravi is a new found talent with a political brain.
According to Chapa Bandara Ravi was a LTTE operative in the past.
He is a Tamil guy with good Sinhala education.
He is supposed to be currently financed by Ali Rajah Subhashwaran who is the LTTE Banker (Black Money) in UK.
Ranjan Ramanayake was once financed by him and Ranjan has disappeared from the main stream.
He was used and dumped and he (Ranjan) is a bit of a political idiot.
4. Chapa Bandara
Chapa is a different kettle of fish with a vast resource pool.
I admire his upright standing with Buddhist Culture.
There is nothing in Ceylon without Buddhist Culture.
We must protect it from Ranil and CIA.
5. Sepala Amarasinghe
Sepala is like quicksand in politics. He switches his political stance instantaneously. His only ploy is to make money when the sun shines. He cannot be trusted in politics bit like Ratana Thera.
Sepala does not have to bring his own views in politics but he has to bring guys slanted with his line of thinking.
Just like Dharshana Hapangoda, basically voice either for or against the government.
Dharshana Hapangoda directly and indirectly helped Anura and the Clan.
This Anura Clan is the sinking ship.
A major disaster impending.
My advice for Champika
He should have a go at the next Presidential Election.
He has only one GO and no more.
He may be guy who can take NPP/JVP head on.
He worked with their cadre in Katubedda
Weera Wansa may not be able to do it with his long alliance with Rajapaksas.
He (WW) has to emerge from the deep pit he is already in.
"Bauddhaya is his Galaweema" not Karl Marx.
Regarding Champika, the biggest disadvantage is money.
Save whatever, You have but Start filling the till from Well Wishers.
That money should be used for Kandy, Galle and Anuradhapura.
Whatever he has done is enough for Colombo.
1. He should get some help from Chandrika on the ground that he won't antagonize her son. That alliance will cover the Attanahalla and Nittambuwa.
As it is Chandrika needs some help.
That guy Wijedasa is a crook and he has no guts to stand up against NPP/JVP but he trying to scoop what is left of PA.
Maithree guy is a liability to any party he associate with.
SLFP is the classic example of political failure and there are about 6 Stake Holders to SLFP.
2. He may need Ravi Kumudesh.
Looking at Hiruni, Ravi is an excellent political animal.
He can breakdown the NPP/JVP trade unions without much a do.
3. Champika needs Harsha De Silva without upsetting Sajith.
Unity of the opposition is vital with one problem, Namal and the Rump of SLPP. He should be stopped at 10% and no more.
No Rajakapsa family guy should be allowed to rise up for another 10 years.
4. Must not antagonize India.
5. He should have a good alliance with Muslims.
Unlike Tamils they cannot be trusted.
6. Tamils are a big problem.
They are spread all over. the globe
Their business arm in Ceylon is broken up by the Muslim businesses.
Tamils know only one language.
That is money, especially dollars.
Nobody can find a single old time L.T.T.E. guy in Canada.
They are all now not first but second generation Canadian politicians.
This
is why Donald Trump is behind the back (Canada) of these illegal guys
not only Sheiks but other Terrorist Rumps from various regions of the
world.
They slowly slip into America from Canada.
Allirajah Subhashwaran is a good example.
Like Emil Saundranayagm of the past, he spins black money to white and white to black, with one spin of the wheel.
Tamils are very much divided but have become an International Conglomerate.
They do not have a base but a Intricate Network.
I am told that they have got India wrapped around their fingers.
Nobody can unite them but money is their global link.
The Kovils and Gold are their lifeline.
Even, in Ceylon Tamils control the gold exchange not Muslims.
My batch mates are a good example how the unity of Tamils are expressed in Global Scale. They are all over the globe.
Their game is to fight among themselves.
They have petty fights everyday and their weapon is the cellphone, mostly Apple devices. Some of the petty fights are related to Caste or Kovils.
The current dilemma is whether to go to Ganges or Kovil in South India.
For Ceylonese Tamils, there is a big difference between an Indian Kovil and a Jaffna Kovil. A Kovil in Kandy has no significance and Kataragama Kovil has lost all its glory..
My current understanding of a Kovil is a Private Bank.
I have no working idea, how much of a cut each Deva gets in each Kovil but it is much less than what the Pusari gets, I am told.
One thing is sure.
Tamils are very intelligent and that itself may be a big problem.
They do not like being cheated like the way Anura has done.
They do not mind "do not care attitude" but if you cheat one, that one will remember it for life.
They never intend to cheat YOU.
Treat them business like and their bona fide language is money, dollars to be precise.
Coming to Politics and Champika
Probable Breakdown of Vote in the near future.
To begin with NPP/JVP (animal) does not need any intervention, at all.
Naturally, it will destroy itself.
It follows the basic animal nature that destroy within.
Just mark my word.
1. SJB 20%
2. NPP 20%
3. SLPP 10%
Tricky 50% Left and JVP got only 42% with lot of money and almost perfect campaign.
My advice;
Champika has to start long before JVP starts crumbling.
If Champika waits until the real fractures appear in NPP/JVP other parties will step in before him to gobble.
He has to eat into its base NOW not later.
His YouTube work should be the harbinger.
Anura is in panic mode already and gather those moments to wrestle its superficial structure including media guys and girls.
Do not let the vote base slip and go to SJB or SLPP.
Both of them have to revamp their camps.
No space should be allowed right at this moment.
Better be early than late.
Ranil may be having a plan of his own.
I guess his window is only 2 years.
Sajith failed twice mainly due to Ranil's backstabbing.
Destroy Ranil and let Sajith consolidate.
SLPP revival depends on Weera Wansa and Wiraya.
SLPP people need time. They would not come to streets until they are fed up again.
With Unity in the opposition YOU can make it.
I say, if Dudley Senanayake is Reborn, somewhere in Ceylon, he should rise up NOW.
1. NPP
4.5 millions
43.6%
3926 seats
2. SJB
2.25 mullions
21.69%
1767 seats
3. SLPP
0.94
9.1%
741 seats
4. UNP
0.488
4.69%
Seats 381
5. PA
0.388
3.72%
Seats 300
SB
0.294
2.83%
Seats 226
Rest
25% mostly in the North.
377 seats
Summary
Presidential Election
5.7 millions
42%
General Election
68 millions
61%
Provincial Council Elections
2.3 millions less totaling about 2.1 millions
43.6%
One (1%) per cent increase which is statistically not significant.
With a massive campaign they could not muster 3% that Australian Labour party achieved.
Calculation based on 40% of 5.6 millions is roughly 2.2 millions.
There actual base is 3% and rest 37% has come from the "Floating Vote" or usually in Ceylon, it is the "Protest Vote" against the party in power.
The "Protest Vote" has not come, yet.
In fact, this protest vote guys prudently kept away from voting instead of voting for the opposition.
What it means is that they are ready to give some limited space for these bone heads but stupid guys a chance.
This is for YouTube guys.
"Uddachcha Kamai" "Ola Mottala Kamai Ekatu Unama" "Wenne Mokkada Machan"
"Jangiye Chu Unawane, Ne"
That is my closing beat to JVP/NPP supporters especially these "YouTube Guys".
Unlike Indian voters in Ceylon the voters are less emotional but mature.
They do not want upset the Apple Cart.
My guess-estimate is NPP/JVP will destroy themselves.
We just have to observe them patiently.
Their behaviour or "Thuga Damima" in public especially in the parliament is not going to work but destroy themselves.
Verdict
Talk Only Show
NATO
No Action Talk Only Show
When the next round of election comes it will dip to 10% to 15% not enough to become even a powerful opposition just like SJB.
I am hopefully waiting for the emergence of TRULY Progressive Alliance (not a single party) of politically astute gathering from the SILENT Majority.
Sitting on the bench is not the way but Participatory Democracy is essential.
It is high time that this process becomes a realty since we are heading for the abyss.
Country before the party should be the slogan.
In any case NPP/JVP is just the " Flash on the Frying Pan".
Sorry for me being pessimistic.
I saw this in broad day light.
How Mahinda Rajapaksa squandered the golden opportunity by being self centered and working for his family and the goons.
I have long term experience with these guys from 1971 to 1989.
I
have been always against their arrogant, impulsive and destructive politics.
They lack the natural and intuitive politics which is the need of the
moment.
Me leaving the country (like many others) having done my part without "pomp and pagan" in my twilight years is the living testimony to how puerile our politics have been.
But my hats off to guys like Harsha De Silva who sacrifice his talent to politics in spite of so many odds.
He sticking in the opposition itself needs lot of grit.
I think Sajith should had over the baton to him and organize the party from grass root level not allowing the "Sutra Pincha" to eat into his base.
Ranil is
another guy who is a political pest (should be in the political dustbin
in India) who should be violently evicted from our body politics.
He is a Greedy Guy.
This one must say to his face to destroy him politically not physically.
I abhor physical violence which was "his trade mark" and known to be utilized at Batalanda.
Do not have any dealing with him.
He is using Anura to undermine Sajith.
If
Sajith take a side step and take a welcome break and let others take
the the baton ousting Anura is a "cake walk" in due course.
Break their back in two years.
Waiting for five years is Stupid.
I was one who stood up against JVP/DJVP when it was the necessity in 1971 and 1989.
These guys would ruin our economy and that is what Indians are wishing and waiting for.
Every minute in politics matters.
SLPP is waiting in the Wing and their Think Tanks are on overdrive and hard at work. Do not give them a fighting chance to be second but let them be in third place with 10% which is realistic.
About Ranil;
"Panuwek Wage Ahaka Danna Oene Minihek"
I hope Harsh De Silva will not fall into his Traps and "his ill gotten money".
Not money but "Wisdom and Vision" is the need of the day.
He is even worse than to S.B.D. in political back stabbing.
"Devio Sakki" is politically invigorating and inspiring to the carder.
Do not revisit the phrase but find new themes.
"Palu Gedara Walan Bidinno = JVP Eka".
What it means is only seeing others faults but not something in one's own eye.
We have enough phrases in our vocabulary which I have forgotten in old age.
Equally I despise guys like Wijedasa Rajapaksa who were wheeler dealers and S.B.Dissanayake the "back stabbing guys".
Very soon, Dilip Jayaweera and Dammka Perera will add to the failing list.
Furthermore, it has lost its base vote value to around 40% from 44% in the local elections, a 4% drop which is politically significant.
SJB had kept it's voter base at around 25%.
SLPP is maintaining it's base of 7.5% a drop of 2.5% from its 10% base.
However, is PA/SLFP is just ahead of UNP and keeping at 5% level.
It did not contest last time round and I am unable to see any of its trends except
Attanagalla and Gamphaha which is losing its grip to J.V.P.
JVP gulped part of its voter base and unless it opposes this trend of JVP it will become and extinct political species
Then the SB which
came in with a view of establishing as a new and modern parry, in spite
of throwing money at will it could not keep it's 10% presidential
election total, simply because it is not presenting an alternative policy that can revive this country.
It is more of the same JRJ "consumerism politics" or "open economy" without a workable program, nonetheless, a theory ad nauseam.
It looks like it is eating into UNP base of 5%.
The biggest loser is UNP which is now hovering around 2.5% well below SLPP.
I wish to propose these two elements (Ranil/Dilip) including Dhammika Perera who financed politics from KUNU Deals from UK (hospital refuse from the West imported to Ceylon and India)
The
bottom line is rhetoric of NPP/JVP is fast losing credibility in the
political sphere and their ability govern and pull the country together. They are good at counter arguments but not governing the country as a sovereign state.
In other words timidity towards India and trying to reach far away country like Vietnam.
No brainier from the start.
Hiring
a plane from Vietnam from its resources abroad is the culmination of
their "bone or pigheadedness" whatever their explanation in defense.
If Sajith did such a thing these YouTube guys would have a field day.
However, they are able to keep near 50% popularity in villages and suburbs that is why their nickname "Gamme Ranil" in "Jangi Aragalaya".
In my analysis NPP is just "Flash in the Pan" political movement which will settle down at somewhere around 10% level just like SJB in the long run which is a significant improvement from 3% carder level politics (which is 2% outside the statistically significant 5% outliers).
In any case, their recent shift from rhetoric and carder level politics to populism of the far right will not be good for their own survival but would be the gradual deterioration into "we also ran or we also governed in Ceylon" .
That would be the recorded in that way in political history.
I am trying to be "Kumar David" a veteran Marxist Political Analyst.
He passed away, recently in California just like Nalin De Silva in America (?where I do not know).
In
their own analysis and expressions they raised the bar high enough even
their carder itself cannot rise up to when the occasion demands.
That is the reality of local or grass root level politics.
Their exuberance (Thota Langa and Maligawa Episodes) and artificial self confidence that they can solve any problem in Ceylon are to their own ruin.
I am happy people have quickly understood their own predicament and how politics works and they will automatically lower their expectations and get on with their normal day to day life.
The System Change is eluding them by design.
It is a sad predicament.
Without money in the coffers and no way to improve productivity we will gradually fall into the abyss.
I would quit politics, right now but my Anti-Indian stance will be the end point.
In the final analysis, JVP's bone headedness and having to learn while on the driving wheel would be a disaster for the entire country.
I think they never expected this type of victory and thankfully the general public has realized their premature aspirations would evaporate into thin air and have stamped a reasonable brake on their military type of administration.
If they realize that running a state is different from running a party that would be the beginning.
It
does not look like they are ready to learn and unfortunately that is their
style and common sense does not prevail in their machinery.
I hope I am proven wrong.
It was a big distraction to my academic work and Linux promotion to 10% of the PC User Base.
Yes, I am fast approaching that target.
Reborn OS or Reborn ARCH Linux is my current interest.
In India Linux use is less than 5% simply because Indian cannot make money on Linux with "War on Muslims" looking eminent.
Only British United India and it will fracture again in no time.
