Outcome

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Gotabaya won Handsomely Because he Addressed the Concerns of the Sinhala Majority in Sri Lanka While Downplaying Issues Agitating the Minority Tamils and Muslims.

 17 November 2019.

By P.K.Balachandran

Gotabaya Rajapaksa of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) convincingly won the Lankan Presidential election held on November 16. Gotabaya got 52.25 % of the valid votes while his principal rival, Sajith Premadasa, got 41.99%, as per figures available in the evening of Sunday. Sajith conceded defeat in a statement released in the afternoon.
During the campaign, the contest was expected to be close, and the end a photo finish. And perhaps for the first time, there was even speculation about a second round taking place if none of the candidates got 50% of the valid votes plus one.
Such a delicate and uncertain scenario gained currency because both principal candidates were not top order politicians. Gotabaya was an army officer turned top level government official turned politician. But he became a politician only after the election was announced. His political experience was therefore nil.
Sajith, on the other hand, was a career politician but a colorless and undistinguished one. He was nominally Deputy Leader of the United National Party (UNP) but he had no role in shaping the policies of the party, a role which was performed by the Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe and his select circle. Sajith hardly spoke about national issues and seemed satisfied with his work in his chosen district of Hambantota.
Since the result of the election could not be predicted, there was talk of a narrow win and a second round.

Key role of Issues
However, the two candidates did make an impact going by the high percentage of polling in most districts barring Jaffna and other districts in the Northern and Eastern provinces. Clearly , the voters had felt the need to vote as there were pressing issues facing them. However, the concerns varied from class to class, region to region and ethnic group to ethnic group. Voters had a clear idea of what they wanted from the government and the candidates, and what they did not want. Clearly they also had a fair idea of what the candidates were capable of.
It is because of certain pressing concerns that even in the Tamil-majority Northern Province, where people were initially contemplating an unofficial boycott, people voted though not as massively as in the Sinhala-speaking districts in the South, West and Central Sri Lanka.

Issues Addressed by Gota
Gotabaya won handsomely because he addressed the concerns of the Sinhala Buddhists and Christians who are the majority in Sri Lanka (70%). And in order to consolidate this constituency he downplayed issues agitating the minority Tamils and Muslims.
Although risky, this strategy of restricting one’s focus to the Sinhalese majority paid off. High polling for Gotabaya even in UNP strongholds like Colombo and Kandy, shows the success of this strategy. Sajith was so irrelevant to the Sinhalese that he could not swing his own district of Hambantota.

Gotabaya addressed the two main concerns of the Sinhalese majority: Firstly, the need for a functioning, cohesive and purposeful government in place of a slothful one; and secondly, the need to ensure national security against the revival of terrorism. The danger of the latter happening having been brought home by the April 21, Eastern Sunday attacks by a group of local Muslim radicals.

In the Easter Sunday case, the UNP regime, of which Sajith was part, had failed miserably to act on timely intelligence, a failure which resulted in nearly 300 deaths.

Gotabaya, on the other hand, had hands-on experience in ensuring security against militants having directed both a conventional and an unconventional war against the separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). Therefore, when Gotabaya pledged to ensure security, there was a ring of authenticity in what he said.

The elite of Sri Lanka, including civil society and the media, however, feared a return to the hard measures taken during the war if Gotabaya were to win. This class used the social media to create a scare about the return of abductions in While Vans. But this campaign made no impact on the masses who placed security above the off chance of being arrested or abducted.

The masses, who are the bulk of the voters, wanted a strong government which will implement its decisions and not waver or countermand its own decisions as the Sirisena-Wickeremesinghe government did for most of its tenure. The masses saw Gotabaya as a doer as he not only defeated the LTTE and killed its leader the dreaded Pabhakaran but also rebuilt Colombo and other towns as Secretary Urban Development.
The economic and infrastructural development of Sri Lanka which had been halted for 30 years because of the war, re-started only with the coming of the Rajapaksas. China and India re-built railways, roads and harbors during his second term after the war.
On the contrary, Sajith had precious little to show, except houses built with India’s help. He branded himself as a grassroots man, but had little to show by way of work at the grassroots level. He talked about the Premadasa legacy but he had nothing to demonstrate its existence.
The promises Sajith made were out of sync with the needs of a developing Sri Lankan society, especially in the Sinhalese South. People in the Sinhalese South do look for government assistance to get a job or to do business. But freebees don’t impress them. They are a proud people who spurned the British offer of jobs in the plantations, forcing the British tea, coffee and rubber companies to import almost a million workers from poverty stricken India.
Sajith became a laughing stock when he offered free sanitary pads to women without knowing that Sri Lankan women are not so poor that they cannot afford them.
The votes that Sajith got in the Sinhala south were the committed UNP votes and elements in the population which feared the return of dictatorship or disliked the family rule of the Rajapaksas.
Issues in Tamil and Muslim Areas
The Northern and Eastern Provinces were a different kettle fish. In these two provinces, the Tamils and Muslims had their own issues different from those of the Sinhalese. The Tamils feared a return to a harsh war-time rule with Gotabaya at the helm surrounded by retired Generals who won laurels in the war, and who were associated with the alleged massacre of civilians in Mulliwaikkal.
Motivated by the last minute appeal by the Tamil National Alliance, the Tamils were determined to defeat Gotabaya. They had little or no faith in the promises made by Sajith, but a vote for him was considered a vote against Gotabaya.
They did not want to waste their vote, which is why they ignored M.K.Shivajilingam, an ex-militant and a blood relation of Prabhakaran’s from the same village Vavettithhurai.
In the Eastern Province too, the Tamils opted for Sajith because they did not want Gotabaya. The Tamils even buried the hatchet vis-à-vis the Muslims, and joined them in voting for Sajith.
Though Sajith had not endeared himself to the Muslims by speaking up for them when they were in trouble, the Muslims did not associate Sajith with any anti-Muslim actions. Gotabaya, on the other hand, had been associated with the Bodu Bala Sena and such other radical Buddhist organizations which fomented riots in Aluthgama and Kandy.
With everyone talking about a close fight and resort to a second round of counting, Gotabaya developed cold feet in the final stages of the campaign and hurriedly started having meetings with Muslim opinion leaders with the help of his attorney, Ali Sabry. But clearly this made no impact.
In conclusion, one could say that Gotabaya won because he addressed and had a solution for the concerns of the majority Sinhalese while Sajith did not. Gotabaya did not answer the needs of the Tamils and Muslims, but Sajith did. But the Sinhalese are 70% of the population. Looking at it strategically, Gotabaya did a sensible thing by catering to the majority Sinhalese. Additionally, the percentage of polling in the Sinhalese areas was appreciably more than in the Tamil and Muslim areas. This helped tilt the balance in favour of Gotabaya.

Courtesy:NewsIn.Asia

Politics and Saffron Garb

According to vulgar deeds prohibited  for monks by Vinaya there are 28 deeds that are not appropriate for one who is in a saffron garb.
 
Politics and bum sucking a Ra Ja are two of then.

Political Will for Integration

Political Will for Integration

Politics is not my fascination!

I am a below average political citizen by all means.

I did not feel the pulse of the nation but was drowned in a total theoretical dream world of mine.

My prediction of neck and neck race with a win by a nose has gone awry.

Mind you I neither did read the local papers nor watched any BIASED or Polarized TV.

I guess no Television station made a broadcast to the effect of a balance discussion.

The Election Commissioner’s spicy or saucy comment is a reminder of the ground zero level.

I did not miss anything.

I have decided to read Des Capital but mind you there isn’t a single copy available in this Buddhist city of Kandy.

The volume III was available but I refused to buy it without the first two volumes.

This is what happens when a nation gives free books (I am totally against this political ploy) to its students that their soiled papers end up as Kadala Gottees (wrappings for chick peas).

They do not value the books or the knowledge imparted.

In a world where putrid Facebook and Twitter discourses determine political wisdom, rather  the outcome and in a digital world where paper has no value but of course pdf files can be a substitute.

Now my bone of contention.

These are my addition to the Des Capital.

Democracy has failed the minority view.

Democracy is crazy (D.M. O’ Crazy).

Democracy is dead.

Democracy has failed the economy!

In Democracy there is no common sense but polarization on ethnic, religious, and more importantly the power of the money to change political will.

Hegemony succeeded.

The common sense failed.

Segregation and polarization worked.

The education system failed in full.

What happens when we employ a SINGLE language policy to educate the poor masses FREE.

I have seen this as a university don.

English language skills are hopelessly inadequate for communication and reading.

Forget about French (I have a O’ Level pass in French but that is not enough to translate the content of this English blog piece)

I think we should place heavy emphasize on language skills (not Tamil and Sinhala).

The link language English is the only solution.

How many parties in Ceylon?

I wish next time we will have  70 candidates. 35 is not good enough for democracy to function. Ahila Ilankai Thamil Congress Akhila Ilankai Tamil Mahasabha Our Power of People Party Our National Front All Ceylon Makkal Congress Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kadchi Eelavar Democratic Front Eelam People’s Democratic Party Eelam People’s Revolutionary Liberation Front United People’s Freedom Alliance United National Freedom Front United National Party United Democratic Front Democratic Unity Alliance United People’s Party Eksath Lanka Podujana Pakshaya Eksath Lanka Maha Saba Party United Left Front United Socialist Party United Peace Alliance Okkoma Wasiyo Okkoma Rajawaru Sanvidanaya Up-Country People’s Front Workers National Front People’s Liberation Front Democratic Tamil National Alliance Jana Setha Peramuna National Congrass National Peoples Party National Freedom Front Jathika Sangwardhena Peramuna National Unity Alliance Jathika Hela Urumaya Nationalities Unity Organization Thamil Makkal Viduthalai Pulikal Social Democratic Party of Tamils Desha Vimukthi Janatha Pakshaya Tamil Eeelam Liberation Organization Tamil United Liberation Front New Democratic Front Nawa Sama Samaja Party Nawa Sihala Urumaya Puravesi Peramuna Frontline Socialist Party People’s Alliance Democratic United National Front Democratic Peoples Front Democratic People’s Liberation Front Democratic National Movement Democratic National Alliance Democratic Party Democratic Left Front Maubima Janatha Pakshaya Mahajana Eksath Peramuna Muslim National Alliance National Front for Good Governance Ceylon Worker’s Congress (P.Wing) Lanka Sama Samaja Party The Liberal Party Sri Lanka Labour Party Sri Lanka Freedom Party Sri Lanka Vanguard Party Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna Sri Lanka Progressive Front Sri Lanka Mahajana Pakshaya Sri Lanka Muslim Congress Communist Party of Sri Lanka Socialist Party of Sri Lanka Socialist Alliance Socialist Equality Party Sinhaladeepa Jathika Peramuna

Why not humans of different complexion integrate like birds?

Why not humans of different complexion integrate like birds?

Reproduction below.

What or who is the Dirtiest?

What or who is the Dirtiest?

This is biased on technology in existence with historical perspective.

Our fingers are the dirtiest.

Then the type writer and the computer keyboard are the dirtiest in this world.

This place is taken by the cellphone now.

So do not blame the porcine clan as the dirtiest in this world.

It is the humans who make the porcine clan dirty by feeding them with dirt of their own excretions.

The humans cannot escape by using their superior brain.

 

What or who is Dirtiest

This is biased on technology in existence with historical perspective.

Our fingers are the dirtiest.

Then the type writer and the computer keyboard are the dirtiest in this world.

This place is taken by the cellphone now.

So do not blame the porcine clan as the dirtiest in this world.

It is the humans who make the porcine clan dirty by feeding them with dirt of their own excretions.

The humans cannot escape by using their superior brain.

Reproduction

Why You Should Wash Your Hands

And How to Do It Properly

There are an estimated 1,500 bacteria per square centimeter of skin on your hand. One of the best ways to prevent bacteria related illnesses and other infectious disease is to wash your hands with soap and water.

While most everyone has heard this message, studies have shown that people still are not washing their hands the right way. In fact, washing alone is not enough to prevent the spread of bacteria and other germs. After washing, you must also dry your hands thoroughly with a clean towel or air dryer. Learning good hand-hygiene habits is essential to reducing the spread of germs.

Germs Are Everywhere

Germs, such as bacteria and viruses, are microscopic and not readily visible to the naked eye. Just because you can't see them, doesn't mean that they aren't there. In fact, some bacteria live on your skin and some even live inside you. Germs commonly reside on everyday objects such as cell phones, shopping carts, and your toothbrush. They can be transferred from contaminated objects to your hands when you touch them. Some of the most common ways that germs get transferred to your hands are through handling raw meat, by using the toilet, or changing a diaper, by coughing or sneezing, and after contact with pets.

Pathogenic bacteria, viruses, fungi, and other germs cause disease in humans. These germs gain access to the body as they are transferred from person to person or from contact with contaminated surfaces. Once inside the body, the germs avoid the body's immune system and are capable of producing toxins that make you sick. The most common causes of food borne diseases and food poisoning are bacteria, viruses, and parasites. Reactions to these germs (a few of which are listed below) can range from mild gastric discomfort and diarrhea to death.

• MRSA- a type of superbug, that can cause serious infections and are difficult to treat due to their resistance to antibiotics.
• Clostridium difficile- antibiotic-resistant bacteria that can cause serious diarrhea and stomach pain.
• E. coli - pathogenic strains of these bacteria cause intestinal disease, urinary tract infections, and meningitis.
• Salmonella - cause the illness salmonellosis, which results in nausea, vomiting, abdominal pain, and diarrhea.
  

How Hand Washing Prevents the Spread of Germs

Proper hand washing and drying is the most effective method of preventing the spread of disease, as it removes the dirt and germs that can be spread to others and helps to keep the environment around you clean. According to the CDC, properly washing and drying your hands reduces your risk of getting sick with diarrhea by 33 percent. It also reduces your risk of getting a respiratory illness by up to 20 percent.

Having clean hands is important because people often use their hands to touch their eyes, nose, and mouth. Contact with these areas gives germs, like the flu virus, access to the inside of the body where they can cause illness, and can also spread skin and eye infections.

You should always wash your hands after touching anything that may be soiled or have a high probability of being contaminated with germs, such as raw meat, and after using the toilet.

How to Wash Your Hands Properly

Washing your hands is a simple process that yields great health benefits. The key is being sure to wash and dry your hands properly to remove dirt, bacteria, and other germs. There are four simple steps to washing your hands. These are:

1. Use warm running water to wet your hands while rubbing them with soap.
2. Rub your hands together being sure to lather the back of the hands and under your nails.
3. Scrub your hands thoroughly for at least 20 seconds.
4. Rinse your hands under running water to remove the soap, dirt, and germs.
   

The Healthiest Way to Dry Your Hands

Drying your hands is a step that should not be ignored in the cleaning process. Properly drying your hands does not include wiping your hands on your clothes to dry them. Drying your hands with a paper towel or using a hand dryer without rubbing your hands together are most effective at keeping bacteria counts low. Rubbing your hands together while drying them under a hand dryer offsets the benefits of hand washing by bringing bacteria within the skin to the surface. These bacteria, along with any that were not removed by washing, can then be transferred to other surfaces.

How to Use Hand Sanitizers

The best option for removing dirt and germs from your hands is soap and water. However, some hand sanitizers can serve as an alternative when soap and water are not available. Hand sanitizers should not be used as a replacement for soap and water because they are not as effective at removing dirt or food and oils that may get on the hands after eating. Hand sanitizers work by coming into direct contact with bacteria and other germs. The alcohol in the sanitizer breaks down the bacterial cell membrane and destroys the germs. When using a hand sanitizer, be sure that it is alcohol-based and contains at least 60% alcohol. Use a paper towel or cloth to remove any dirt or food on your hands. Apply the hand sanitizer as directed on the instructions. Rub the sanitizer all over your hands and between your fingers until your hands are dry.

Sources

• "Why Wash Your Hands?" Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Updated November 08, 2015. http://www.cdc.gov/handwashing/why-handwashing.html.
• "When & How to Wash Your Hands" Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Updated September 4, 2015. http://www.cdc.gov/handwashing/when-how-handwashing.html.
  

Effect of cellphone in Election Outcome

This time round, cellphone won't have any significant effect on the outcome of the election.
Overuse of any medium has diminishing effects including Television and Media.
I am getting a message from one candidate who believes in technocratic approach.
 
My knee jerk reaction/traction is to delete.
 
I do not believe in misreading a political message.
 
If he does it after the election, I might say thank you.
 
Not now.

Highlights!

Highlights!

I escaped from daylight round up of university students in 1971 in Peradeniya University Under Sirima.

The army guy who headed the round up operation happened to be from my college (contemporary but not one of my class mates).

None from the Arunachelum Hall of Residence was taken out.

I do not claim any credits.

The JVP, had placed improvised bombs on top of our room’s ceiling, I was told by the said lieutenant.

What happened to the undergraduates, from other halls of residence, I still do not know.

None of my class mates, most of whom are living healthily even today had any lineage to extreme ideas.

They are/were all over the world and in Ceylon.

This is true of my batch mates (most of them Tamils, none Muslim except one guy from Malaysia; lost contact with him after graduation) of the Medical Faculty.

We had a grand get together in India in 2009 (I did not attend) and in 2018 in Kandy.

There is guy in my batch who can organize a get together on the drop of a hat (mostly out of his own pocket).

Mind you he was a professor (field withheld).

Then, polishing a bottle of V.S.O.A or Gin and tonic was our pastime, and some are veterans in that sport.

He was here recently but I advised him to take the flight back before the election.

In 1983 I was abroad when ethnic bashing was unleashed by UNP.
I was here in 1984 briefly and went back.
I was here in 1984 clearing my unaccompanied luggage at the naval port when J.R.J. was having a putative referendum with a Muttiya (a pot).
Fast track to 1989, I was Number Three on the D.J.V.P’s hit list and I saw the dead bodies dumped in Digana.
The vegetable vender who sold his last stock of vegetables to me was killed by “Deshapremies”.
His neck was cut on the back and he bled to death.
Mahaveli Security did not let him into my clinic a walking distance from his home in spite of repeated requests.
With few stitches, I could have saved him.
There were no electricity, I had a generator in my clinic and stocked all ice creams of the neighboring boutiques and dished out ice creams free to kids who came to the clinic.
Tea was free on my account and I had cartoons of milk on stock.
I bought all the milk cartoons preempting D.J.V.Ps blackouts.
A little girl (my favorite kid) died in her father’s (DJVPs blackouts) lap asking to be taken to me.
A little Muslim girl who had over 70% burns was under my care and I saved her.
A kid with appendicitis (a foreigner) was transferred to Kandy in our car (no ambulances then).
This is my explanation for why I do not practice NOW.
I did my part when doctors were hiding or going abroad!
My name was Number Three (a JVP sympathizer told me) in the JVP hit list and I was asked to leave by one of my laborers.
I saw him few weeks later and never after that presumed killed.
When I was coming home alone, they were digging the road so that a vehicle could not pass (but I managed) and I stopped to have a peep of dead bodies dumped to the Mahaveli River.
There were no crocodiles then in Rajawella but they were transported from Mahiyangana and they slowly went back to Mahiyangana on their own accord.

Mid you Ceylon is a typical Buddhist country by deeds not by Buddha’s sayings.

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The police arrest even the drivers of vehicles transporting cattle illegally.
Why didn’t they arrest the ‘white van driver’, who claimed to have taken humans to be fed to crocodiles?
It is a crime to aid and abet criminals.
Legal action should be taken against the government politicians who are shielding the ‘white van driver’.
Will the police explain why they have not arrested him and those who are giving him refuge?

Wishful Thinking-But no game changer visible Politically

Wishful Thinking-But no game changer visible Politically

Reproduction

By Victor Ivan

ජනාධිපතිවරණය පරිවර්තන අවකාශයක් බවට හරවා ගැනීම

වික්ටර් අයිවන්

ජනාධිපතිවරණයට නියම වශයෙන් තරග කරන අපේක්ෂකයන් සියලුදෙනාම පාහේ සිය ප්‍රතිපත්ති ප්‍රකාශනය ඉදිරිපත් කර ඇතත්, ලංකාව මුහුණ දී තිබෙන අර්බුදය සැබෑ ලෙස තේරුම් ගෙන එම අර්බුදය ජයගැනීම සඳහා වන ප්‍රායෝගික දැක්මක් පෙන්නුම් කිරීමට ඒ කිසිම ප්‍රතිපත්ති ප්‍රකාශනයක් සමත් වී නැත.

ජාතිය ගොඩනගා ගැනීමට අසමත්වීම ලංකාවේ අර්බුදය කෙරෙහි බලපා තිබෙන ප්‍රධානතම ප්‍රශ්නය ලෙස සැලකිය හැකිය. එය එම ප්‍රශ්නයේ අරටුව ලෙස සැලකිය හැකිය. ජාතිය ඒකාග්‍ර කිරීමට නොහැකි වී තිබෙන්නේ වර්ග ආගම් හා කුලභේද නිසාය. වර්ග හෝ ආගම් නැති කළ නොහැකිය. පැරණි වැඩවසම් ක්‍රමය තුළ ශ්‍රම විභජනය සඳහා යොදා ගත් ක්‍රමයක් වශයෙන් වැඩවසම් කුල ක්‍රමය අදට අවශ්‍යවන්නේ නැත. වර්තමානයේ කුල ක්‍රමය මත පදනම් වූ ශ්‍රම විභජනයක් විහාර දේවාල ගම්වල හැර අන් තැන්වල නැතත්, කුල ක්‍රමය විසින් ඇති කළ උස් පහත් බෙදීම් කිසියම් සැලකිය යුතු ප්‍රමාණයකට අප අතර පවතී. කුලභේදය මුළුමනින් අහෝසි කිරීමට හේතුවන මතවාදයක් සමග ඒ සඳහා වන ප්‍රතිසංස්කරණ අවශ්‍ය වී තිබේ. වර්ග හා ආගම් අතර ගැටුම් ඇති කිරීමට හේතුවන භේද නැති කොට වර්ග හා ආගම් අතර ශක්තිමත් සහජීවනයක් ඇති කිරීමට හේතුවන මතවාදයක් සමග ඒ සඳහා වන ප්‍රතිසංස්කරණද අවශ්‍ය වී තිබේ.

වර්ග භේදයට හා ආගම් භේදයට වඩා කුලභේදය පීඩාකාරීය. 1990 තරුණයන් පිළිබඳ ජනාධිපති කොමිෂන් සභා වාර්තාවේ තරුණ කැරලි කෙරෙහි කුලය රඟපෑ භූමිකාව පිළිගනිමින් එම තත්ත්වය ගැන වන විග්‍රහයක්ද ඊට ඇතුළත්ය. කොමිෂන් සභාවේ මතය අනුව ජේවීපී දෙවැනි කැරැල්ලේ තදබල සටන් පැවතුණේ ගොවිගම නොවන බත්ගම හෝ වහුම්පුර සහ වෙනත් උපකුලවලට අයත් ගම්වලය. “සමකාලීන තරුණ අසහනයට ආධාරක වූ වැදගත් කොටසක් කුලය විසින් රඟපා ඇති බවට කොමිසම සෑහීමට පත්වී සිටින බව කොමිසම සඳහන් කරන අතර තවමත් සාමාජික හා දේශපාලනික පීඩනයෙන් බහුල ලෙස පීඩාවට පත්වෙමින් අහුමුළුවලට කොටුවී හෝ සිරවී සිටින බව සඳහන් වේ. මෙසේ වෙනස් ලෙස සලකනු ලැබීමට ගොදුරු වූ තරුණයන් කැරලි මාර්ගයට පහසුවෙන් පිවිසෙනු ඇති බවද එහි සඳහන් වේ.

වර්ගය සහ ආගම

බ්‍රයිස් රයන් නිවැරදි ලෙස පෙන්වා දී තිබෙන ආකාරයට වර්ග, ආගම් භේදය ලංකාවේ අතීතයේදී පැවති දෙයක් නොව නූතනයේදී කරළියට ආ ප්‍රපංචයකි. මම මාගේ “ඉතිහාසයේ සභ්‍යත්වය” නමැති කෘතියෙන් පෙන්වා දී තිබෙන ආකාරයට දුටුගැමුණුගෙන් පසුව ලංකාව එක්සත් කළ රජවරුන් තිදෙනාද (I වන විජයබාහු, II වැනි පරාක්‍රමබාහු හා IV පරාක්‍රමබාහු) ඇතුළු ලංකාව පාලනය කළ සියලු රජවරු බුද්ධාගමට අතිරේකව හින්දු ආගමද ඇදහුවෝය. ඒ සියලුදෙනා පන්සල් හා වෙහෙර විහාර ඉදිකරන අතර හින්දු, කෝවිල් හා දේවාලද ඉදි කළහ. හින්දු දමිළයන් අතර බුදුන් වහන්සේට ලොකු පිළිගැනීමක් තිබුණා සේ ම, බෞද්ධ සිංහලයන් අතරද හින්දු දෙවිවරුන්ට ලොකු පිළිගැනීමක් තිබුණි. සිංහල බෞද්ධයෝ තෙරුවන් නමදින අතර හින්දු දෙවිවරුන්ගේද ආශිර්වාද පැතූහ. හින්දු දෙවිවරුන් වන්දනාමාන කිරීමෙන් මෙලොව ජීවිතය සැපවත් කරගැනීමට බලාපොරොත්තු වූ අතර බුද්ධාගම ඇදහීමෙන් පරලෝ සැපත ළඟාකර ගැනීමට අපේක්ෂා කළෝය.

පෘතුගීසීන් ලංකාවට එන අවස්ථාව වනවිටත් මුස්ලිම්වරුන් ලංකාවේ ජීවත් වන තුන්වැනි ජනවර්ගයක් බවට පත්ව තිබුණි. රිදී විහාරය ඒ කාලයේ පැවති බෞද්ධ, මුස්ලිම් සහජීවනය සඳහා දැක්විය හැකි හොඳම නිදර්ශනය ලෙස සැලකිය හැකිය.

මුස්ලිම්වරු එම විහාරයේ නිල පංගුකාරයන් ලෙස සේවය කළහ. ඔවුන්ට විහාර භූමියේ මුස්ලිම් පල්ලියක් පවත්වාගෙන යාමට ඉඩදී තිබුණ අතර මුස්ලිම් පූජකයකු නඩත්තු කිරීම සඳහා විහාර ඉඩමෙන් නිල පංගුවක්ද ලබාදී තිබුණි.

වර්ගය හා ආගම මුල් කරගත් ගැටුම් ඇති වන තත්ත්වයක් ඇතිවූයේ ලංකාව නූතන යුගයට හෙවත් යටත්විජිතවාදී ධනේශ්වර ක්‍රමයකට පිවිසීමෙන් පසුවය.

ආගමික හා වාර්ගික ප්‍රබෝධය

ලංකාවේ සිංහල දෙමළ හා මුස්ලිම් යන වර්ග අතර තමන් අදහන ආගම හා වර්ගය මුල් කරගත් ප්‍රබෝධයක් ඇතිවීම ආරම්භවන්නේ බි්‍රතාන්‍ය පාලන යුගය තුළ පාසල් අධ්‍යාපනය ව්‍යාප්ත වී ලංකා සමාජය අකුරු උගත් පොත්පත් කියවන සමාජයක් බවට පරිවර්තනය වීමත් සමගය. රීතියක් ලෙස හැම යටත්විජිත රටකම පාහේ දේශපාලන ප්‍රතිසංස්කරණ මුල් කරගත් උද්ඝෝෂණවලට පෙර කරළියට ආවේ දේශීය ආගම්වල අයිතිවාසිකම් මුල් කරගත් උද්ඝෝෂණයන්ය. දේශීය ආගම් පුනරුත්ථාපනය කිරීමේ ව්‍යාපාරය ලෙස හැඳින්විය හැකි එම ආගමික උද්ඝෝෂණ ව්‍යාපාරය තුළ කිසියම් ප්‍රමාණයකට සැඟවුණු දේශපාලන අරමුණුද තිබුණි.
1848න් පසුව 19 වැනි ශත වර්ෂයේ අවසානය දක්වා ලංකාවේ පැවතුණේ ඉන්දියාවට වඩා වෙනස්ව ගැටුම්වලින් තොර සාමකාමී වාතාවරණයකය. වාණිජ වතු වගාව මුල් කරගත් ධනේශ්වර ක්‍රමයක් ඇතිවී එහි වර්ධනය සිදුවන්නේද පාසල් ක්‍රමයක් ඇතිවී එහි ඇතිවන වර්ධනයක් සිදුවන්නේද ලංකා සමාජය වේගයෙන් අකුරු උගත්, පුවත්පත් හා පොත්පත් කියවන සමාජයක් ලෙස වර්ධනය වන්නේද මේ කාලයේදීය. 19 වන ශතවර්ෂයේ අධ්‍යාපනය අවසන් වන විට රටේ එතෙක් පැවති නිසලතාව අවසන්වෙමින් ආගමික උද්ඝෝෂණද කම්කරු නොසන්සුන්තාවන්ද ඇතිවන්නට විය.

යටත්විජිත ආධිපත්‍යයක් පැවති දීර්ඝ කාලය තුළ බෞද්ධ හින්දු හා මුස්ලිම් යන ආගම් දරුණු පිරිහීමකට ලක්ව තිබුණි. දේශීය ආගම් කෙරෙහි ඉතාමත් දරදඬු ප්‍රතිපත්තියක් ක්‍රියාත්මක වූයේ පෘතුගීසි පාලනයක් පැවති යුගයේදී ඔවුන්ගේ පාලන බල ප්‍රදේශවලය. ඉන්පසු එළැඹෙන ලන්දේසි යුගය එතරම්ම දරදඬු ආගමික ප්‍රතිපත්තියක් ක්‍රියාත්මක නොවූයේය. අනතුරුව එළැඹෙන බි්‍රතාන්‍ය යුගය දේශීය ආගම් සම්බන්ධයෙන් සහනශීලී ප්‍රතිපත්තියක් ක්‍රියාත්මක වූ අතර දේශීය ආගම් මුල් කරගත් ආගම්වල අභිවෘද්ධිය මුල් කරගත් ආගමික පුනර්ජීවන ව්‍යාපාර ඇතිවන්නේ ඒ පසුබිමේය. එම ව්‍යාපාර ඉදිරියට ගෙන යෑම සඳහා අවශ්‍ය වෘත්තීය බුද්ධිමතුන් පිරිසක්ද බෞද්ධ හින්දු මුස්ලිම් ආගම් ආශ්‍රයෙන් ඇතිවී තිබුණි.

කතෝලික හා ක්‍රිස්තියානි ආගම් පැමිණීම තුළ ලංකාවේ වාර්ගික හා ආගමික සංයෝජනයේ සැලකිය යුතු වෙනස්කම් ඇති කිරීමට හේතුවී තිබුණි. 1911දී 40 ලක්ෂයක් වූ මුළු ජනගහනයෙන් 60%ක් බෞද්ධයන් වූ අතර 23%ක් හින්දුන් ද, 10%ක් ක්‍රිස්තු භක්තිකයන්ද, 7%ක් මුස්ලම් භක්තිකයන්ද වූහ. ශත වර්ෂ ගණනාවක් තිස්සේ සිදුවූ ක්‍රිස්තියානිකරණය හේතු කොටගෙන බෞද්ධයන්ගෙන් 9%ක් පමණද, හින්දුන්ගෙන් 12%ක් පමණද, කතෝලික හා ක්‍රිස්තියානි ආගම් වැලඳගෙන සිටියේය. 7%ක් වූ මුස්ලිම්වරුන් ඉස්ලාම් අදහන්නන් වූ අතර 0.6%ක් වූ බර්ගර්වරු ක්‍රිස්තු භක්තිකයෝ වූහ.

ආගම් භේදය සමග වර්ග භේදය

ලංකාවේ බෞද්ධ හා හින්දු ආගමික පුනර්ජීවන ව්‍යාපාරවලට ඉතා බලවත් ක්‍රිස්තියානි විරෝධී අන්තර්ගතයක් තිබුණු අතර මුස්ලිම් පුනර්ජීවන ව්‍යාපාරයට පමණක් ක්‍රිස්තියානි විරෝධී අන්තර්ගතයක් නොතිබුණි. සියලු ආගමික පුනර්ජීවන ව්‍යාපාර අතරින් බලවත්ම ව්‍යාපාරය ලෙස හා වඩාත්ම සටන්කාමී ව්‍යාපාරය ලෙස සැලකිය හැක්කේ අනගාරික ධර්මපාලගේ නායකත්වයෙන් ක්‍රියාත්මක වූ බෞද්ධ පුනරුද ව්‍යාපාරයයි. ලංකාවේ බෞද්ධ පුනර්ජීවන ව්‍යාපාරය හෝ ආරුමුගම් නාවලර්ගේ නායකත්වයෙන් ක්‍රියාත්මක වූ හින්දු පුනර්ජීවන ව්‍යාපාරය ඉන්දියාවේ හින්දු හා මුස්ලිම් ආගමික පුනර්ජීවන ව්‍යාපාරය සමග ගත් කල සැලකිය හැක්කේ සටන්කාමී බවක් තිබියදීත් පසුගාමී අදහස් දරන ලද ව්‍යාපාර ලෙසය. ඒවා සිංහල සමාජයේ හා දෙමළ සමාජයේ පැවති කුලභේදය ඉවසුවේය. ජාතිය ඒකාග්‍ර කරන දෘෂ්ටියක් ඒවාට නොතිබුණේය. ඒ නිසා ඒවා භේදකාරී අදහස් වපුරන ව්‍යාපාර ලෙස ක්‍රියා කළේය.

අනගාරික ධර්මපාල සිංහල බෞද්ධ චින්තනය කෙරෙහි වඩාත්ම බලපෑ චින්තකයා ලෙස සැලකිය හැකි අතර ආරුමුගම් නාවලර් දමිළ හින්දුන්ගේ චින්තනය කෙරෙහි වැඩියෙන්ම බලපෑ චින්තකයා ලෙස සැලකිය හැකිය. සිංහල ජන වර්ගය ලංකාවේ අන් සියලු වර්ගවලට පමණක් නොව ලෝකයේ අන් සියලු ජනවර්ගවලටද වඩා උත්තම ජනවර්ගයක්ය යන මතය සිංහල බෞද්ධ ජන මනසට කාවන්දන ලද්දේ අනගාරික ධර්මපාලය. ධර්මපාල ලංකාවේ හිමිකරුවන් ලෙස සලකන ලද්දේ සිංහල ජනවර්ගය පමණය. දෙමළ මුස්ලිම් ජන වර්ග සලකන ලද්දේ ලංකාවේ සාරය උරා බොන පරදේශක්කාරයන් ලෙසය.

ආගමික පුනර්ජීවන ව්‍යාපාරය නිසා ඇතිවූ ආගමික හා වාර්ගික ප්‍රබෝධය අන්තර් වාර්ගික හා ආගමික කලකෝලාහල ඇති කිරීමට හේතුවිය. 1884 ජනවාරිවලදී කොටහේනේදී පාස්කු ඉරිදා දිනයේදී බෞද්ධයන් හා කතෝලිකයන් අතර ලොකු කෝලාහලයක් සිදුවිය. ඉන්පසු 1915දී සිංහල මුස්ලිම් කෝලාහලයක් ඇතිවිය. එය රට පුරා ව්‍යාප්ත වූ කෝලාහලයක් විය. එහිදී සිදුවූ ජීවිත හා දේපළ විනාශය අතිවිශාලය.

ජාතිය ගොඩනගා ගැනීමට අසමත්වීම

ලංකාව නිදහසට පෙර හෝ පසුව වර්ග, කුල හා ආගම් අනුව බෙදී සිටි ජනතාව ඒකාග්‍ර කිරීමට හේතුවන ආකාරයට ජාතිය ගොඩනගා ගැනීමට සමත් වූයේ නැත. ලංකාවේ සිංහල හා දෙමළ හා අවසානයේ මුස්ලිම් ප්‍රචණ්ඩ ගැටුම් ඇතිවූයේ එහි ප්‍රතිඵලයක් වශයෙනි. ඒ ප්‍රචණ්ඩ ගැටුම් වෙනුවෙන් ලංකාව ගෙවා තිබෙන වන්දිය සුවිශාලය.

ඇතිවූ ප්‍රචණ්ඩ ගැටුම් හා ඒ ආශ්‍රයෙන් රටේ ඇතිවූ අශීලාචාර වටපිටාව සමාජය පමණක් නොව, රාජ්‍යය සහ එහි ආයතන ක්‍රමයද දූෂිත කොට ජරාජීර්ණ කිරීමට හේතුවී තිබුණි.

අභ්‍යන්තර යුද්ධය අවසන් වූ අවස්ථාව සමාජ ක්‍රමයේ ඇතිවී තිබුණ විකෘතිය හා රාජ්‍යය හා එහි ආයතන ක්‍රමයේ ඇතිවී තිබුණ කුණුවීම ජයගැනීම සඳහා ව්‍යුහාත්මක ප්‍රතිසංස්කරණ කරළියට ගැනීම සඳහා ලැබුණු ස්වර්ණමය අවස්ථාව ලෙස සැලකිය හැකිය. දෙමළ සන්ධානයේ නායකයන්ද ඒ අවස්ථාවේ සිටියේ මටසිලුටු තැනකය. ප්‍රභාකරන් ජාතික ගීය හා ජාතික කොඩිය පාවිච්චි කිරීම සඳහා යොදාගෙන තිබුණු තහනම අහෝසි කරමින් අභ්‍යන්තර යුද්ධය අවසන්වීමෙන් පසුව දෙමළ සන්ධානය විසින් පවත්වන ලද පක්ෂ සම්මේලනයකදී පළමුවරට ජාතික ගීය ගයන ලද අතර ඒ අවස්ථාව සඳහා ජාතික කොඩියද යොදාගෙන තිබුණි. එය දෙමළ උතුරෙන් ලැබුණු බලවත් සංඥාවක් වුවද එය තේරුම් ගැනීමට අභ්‍යන්තර යුද්ධය ජයගත් නායකයා අසමත් විය. ව්‍යුහමය ප්‍රතිසංස්කරණවල අවශ්‍යතාව තේරුම් ගැනීමටද මහින්ද රාජපක්ෂ ජනාධිපතිවරයා අසමත් විය. එම තත්ත්වය රට තිබුණ අර්බුදයට වඩා ලොකු අර්බුදයකට තල්ලු කිරීමට හේතුවූ අතර, එහිම ප්‍රතිඵලයක් වශයෙන් රාජපක්ෂ ජනාධිපතිවරයාට ජනාධිපතිවරණයෙන් පරාජය වී ආණ්ඩු බලයද අහිමි කරගනිමින් ගෙදර යන්නට සිදුවිය. එහිම ප්‍රතිඵලයක් වශයෙන් බලයට පැමිණි යහපාලන ආණ්ඩුවද අඳුරේ අතපත ගාන පිළිවෙතක් අනුගමනය කළා විනා විකෘති වී තිබූ සමාජ ක්‍රමයේ හා කුණුවී තිබුණු රාජ්‍යයේ සැබෑ වෙනසක් ඇති කිරීමට හේතුවන ව්‍යුහමය ප්‍රතිසංස්කරණවලට අත නොගැසුවේය.

දැන් අර්බුදය තිබෙන්නේ උපරිම තත්ත්වයකට වර්ධනය වූ පසුබිමකය. සමාජ ක්‍රමය හා රාජ්‍යය තිබෙන්නේද උපරිම තත්ත්වයකට වර්ධනය වූ ක්‍රමයේ ගැඹුරු වෙනසක් ඇති කිරීමට හේතුවන ව්‍යුහමය ප්‍රතිසංස්කරණවලින් තොරව එක අඩියක්වත් ඉදිරියට යා නොහැකිව හිරවූ තත්ත්වයකය.
වාන් දොරටු ඇරීම

ජනාධිපතිවරණයට තරග කරන විකල්ප බලවේගවලට අවශ්‍ය නම් මෙම ජනාධිපතිවරණය උපායමාර්ගික අර්ථයෙන් ක්‍රමයේ සැබෑ පරිවර්තනයකට දොරටු විවර කර ගන්නා අවස්ථාවක් බවට හරවා ගත හැකිය. කොටින්ම කියනවා නම් අවුලක් බවට පත් ව තිබෙන ජාතිය ද, දූෂණයෙන් කුණු වී තිබෙන රාජ්‍යය ද ප්‍රතිනිර්මාණය කර ගැනීම සඳහා ව්‍යුහමය ප්‍රතිසංස්කරණ අරමුණු කර ගත් මහජන ව්‍යවථා සම්පාදනයක් දිනා ගන්නා මැතිවරණයක් බවට හරවා ගත හැකිය.

ප්‍රධාන ප්‍රවාහයේ තරගකරුවන් දෙදෙනා අතර තිබෙන්නේ ළඟ ළඟ තරගයකි. ජාතික ජන බලවේගය ලබාගන්නා ඡන්ද සංඛ්‍යාවේ ප්‍රමාණය කුමක් වුවද අනුර කුමාරට මෙම තරගයේ පළමුවැනියා හෝ දෙවැනියා විය නොහැකිය. රොහාන් පල්ලෙවත්ත, මහේෂ් සේනානායක හා දුමින්ද නාගමුවට ද එම ධර්මතාව අදාළය.

ප්‍රධාන අපේක්ෂකයින් දෙදෙනා අතර තරගය ළඟ ළඟ තරගයක් වන නිසා ම ජනාධිපතිවරණයට තරග කරන විකල්ප ව්‍යාපාරවලට මෙම තරගය කෙරෙහි තීරණාත්මක බලපෑමක් කළ හැකිය. ප්‍රධාන තරගකරුවන් දෙදෙනා අතරින් ජය ගත යුතු හා පරාජය කළ යුතු අපේක්ෂකයා තීන්දු කළ හැකිය. මෙම හැකියාව උපායමාර්ගික ලෙස ප්‍රයෝජනයට ගනිමින් මහජන ව්‍යවස්ථා සම්පාදනයක් දිනා ගැනීම සඳහා මෙම සුවිශේෂ තත්ත්වය ප්‍රයෝජනයට ගත හැකිය.

මහජන ව්‍යවස්ථා සම්පාදනය මෙම විකල්ප ව්‍යාපාරවල ද වැදගත් අරමුණක් වන බැවින් ඒ සඳහා අවශ්‍ය බලය සහිත රාමුවක් සකස් කරන බවට සදාචාරමය වශයෙන් පමණක් නොව නීතිමය වශයෙන් ද බැඳීමක් ඇති ගිවිසුමකට එකඟ වන්නේ නම් ඊට එකඟ වන අපේක්ෂකයාට සහාය ප්‍රකාශ කොට තරගයෙන් ඉවත් විය හැකිය. එමගින් ක්‍රමයේ ගැඹුරු වෙනසක් ඇති කිරීමට හේතුවන මහජන ව්‍යවසථා සම්පාදනයකට දොරටු විවෘත කර ගත හැකිය.

විකල්පයට කළ හැකි දේ

විකල්ප බලයක් වෙනුවෙන් පෙනී සිටින අපේක්ෂකයින් සියලුදෙනා මෙම ජනාධිපතිවරණයට තරග කරන්නේ ජනාධිපතිවරණය ජය ගැනීම සඳහා නොව ඉදිරියේ පැවැත්වෙන පාර්ලිමේන්තු මැතිවරණයට තරග කොට පාර්ලිමේන්තු නියෝජනයක් ලබා ගැනීම සඳහා හෝ තිබෙන පාර්ලිමේන්තු නියෝජනය වර්ධනය කර ගැනීම සඳහාය. එහෙත් ලංකාවේ අර්බුදය තිබෙන්නේ වහා විසඳා ගත යුතු තත්ත්වයක මිස ඔවුන් කවදා හෝ බලයට පැමිණ විසඳා ගත යුතු තත්ත්වයක නොවේ.

අනෙක් අතට ලංකාවේ මැතිවරණ ක්‍රමය සකස් වී තිබෙන්නේ විකල්ප ව්‍යාපාරවලට ලොකු බලයක් ලැබෙන ආකාරයට නොව ලොකු මුදල් බලයක් ඇති අයට බලය ලැබෙන ආකාරයටය. මහජන ව්‍යවස්ථා සම්පාදනයකින් එම විෂම තත්ත්වය වෙනස් කළ හැකි අතර එවැනි වෙනස්කම් ඇති කිරීමෙන් පසුව පවත්වන මැතිවරණයක් නිසැකව ම විකල්ප ව්‍යාපාරවලට, වඩා වාසිදායක ප්‍රතිඵල ලබාගත හැකිය.

ඊළඟ පාර්ලිමේන්තු මැතිවරණයට පෙර මහජන ව්‍යවස්ථා සම්පාදන වැඩසටහන ආරම්භ කිරීමට එකඟතාවක් ඇතිකර ගතහැකි නම්, එම ව්‍යවස්ථා සම්පාදනය අදියර දෙකක් යටතේ සිදු කළ හැකිය. පළමු අදියරේ දී පාර්ලිමේන්තු මන්ත්‍රීවරුන්ට හා මැතිවරණ ක්‍රමයට අදාළ ප්‍රතිසංස්කරණ සිදු කළ හැකිය. ඒ මගින් මුදල් බලයට ලැබෙන වැදගත්කම අවම කෙරෙන ආකාරයට මැතිවරණ ක්‍රමය ප්‍රතිසංස්කරණය කළ හැකිය. එම ප්‍රතිසංස්කරණවලින් පසුව පාර්ලිමේන්තු මැතිවරණයකට යා හැකිය.

ඒ අනුව පාර්ලිමේන්තු මැතිවරණයක් දක්වා කාලය තුළ ව්‍යස්ථා සම්පාදන මණ්ඩලය සමන්විත වනු ඇත්තේ වර්තමාන පාර්ලිමේන්තුවේ මන්ත්‍රීවරුන් 225න් හා ඊට වැඩි සංඛ්‍යාවකින් යුතු පිළිගත් ක්‍රමයකට තෝරා ගන්නා මහජන සංවිධානවල නියෝජිතයින්ගෙනි. පාර්ලිමේන්තු මැතිවරණයෙන් පසු ව්‍යවස්ථා සම්පාදනයේ වඩා වැදගත් දෙවැනි අදියර සඳහා එම ව්‍යවස්ථා සම්පාදන මණ්ඩලයට පැරණි මන්ත්‍රීවරුන් වෙනුවට අලුත් මන්ත්‍රීවරුන් පත් වනු ඇත.
සාමාන්‍යයෙන් මහජන ව්‍යවස්ථා සම්පාදන ක්‍රියාදාමයකදී ව්‍යවස්ථා සම්පාදන මණ්ඩලය ව්‍යවස්ථා කෙටුම්පත් කරන ක්‍රියාදාමයට පමණක් සීමාවන්නේ නැත. කොමිෂන් සභා පත්කිරීමෙන් හෝ වෙනත් උචිත ආකාරවලට සමස්ත ක්‍රමයට අදාළ සියලු දේ සොයා බැලීමේ බලය බුක්ති විඳිනු ලබන්නේය. ඊට අන්තර්කාලීන ව්‍යවස්ථාවක් තිබිය යුතු අතර සමස්ත ක්‍රියාදාමය සිදු කරන්නට යන ආකාරය කාලරාමුවක් සහිතව එහි සඳහන් විය යුතුය. මහජන ව්‍යවස්ථා සම්පාදනකදී සියලු කටයුතුවලට සහභාගිවීම සඳහා මහජනයාට උපරිම අවස්ථා සලසා දීම අත්‍යවශ්‍ය හා අනිවාර්ය කොන්දේසියක් වන්නේය.

එවැනි පරිවර්තන වැඩසටහනකට ප්‍රධාන අපේක්ෂකයින් දෙදෙනාගෙන් කෙනෙකු එකඟ කරවා ගනිමින්, අවශ්‍ය නීත්‍යානුකූල ගිවිසුම් ඇතිකර ගනිමින්, ඔහුට ජය ගැනීමට අවශ්‍ය සහාය ලබාදෙමින්, මහජන ව්‍යවස්ථා සම්පාදනයකට දොරටු ක්‍රමවත් ලෙස විවෘත කරවා ගැනීමට හැකිවේ නම්, එය සියලු ජන කණ්ඩායම්වල ද, පොදු වේ මහජනයාගේ ද මහත් ආස්වාදයට හේතුවනු නොඅනුමානය. එය විකල්ප ව්‍යාපාරවලටද ලොකු මහජන පිළිගැනීමක් ලබාදීමට හේතුවනවා සේ ම එම ව්‍යාපාරවල නායකයින්ට හා ක්‍රියාධරයින්ට එම පරිවර්තන වැඩසටහනේ නියමුවන් බවට ද පත්විය හැකිය.

ක්‍රමයේ සැබෑ පරිවර්තනයක් සඳහා යොදා ගතහැකි මෙම ස්වර්ණමය අවස්ථාව ප්‍රයෝජනයට ගත යුතු නැද්ද?

Election Jillmarts of Yesteryear

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Election Jillmarts of Yesteryear

The last election, and the next

November 9, 2019, 12:00 pm


Sanjana Hattotuwa

The room was paid for, in cash, by someone else. The hotel was chosen because of its location close to the HQ of the Centre for Monitoring Election Violence in 2014. Well before election day on January 8, full access to key websites was given to trusted individuals outside Sri Lanka, to post updates from where they were in the event of complete Internet shutdown or pervasive social media block. New SIM cards were bought and a fax machine – because broadband blocks don’t apply to what can be typed out and sent out through other networks and means. Technical investments were made to strengthen key sites and accounts providing updates leading up to, on the day of and just after the election. Data packages from multiple ISPs were procured. In case one network failed or created friction around the production or promotion of critical updates, we could switch to another. A hotel room was converted into an operations hub, with traffic routed through the hotel’s Wi-Fi masked using a VPN. Encrypted messaging apps were used to coordinate movements and operations, as well as to push out updates, in the event key websites were blocked. Contingency plans in the event of a sudden raid were drawn up, to switch information and news operations off-site seamlessly.

Results on the night of the 8th stopped for hours on end. The risible explanation given to some TV stations that called up was that the Election Department’s FTP servers had failed. Something else was going on, and the count, as well as the final results, were being held up. Conversations around this time at Temple Trees, involving the armed forces, the Rajapaksas and other influential members of the regime, featured heavily in the news cycle in 2015. Some who were part of these discussions, a few weeks hence, had entirely forgotten what was covered and who was present. Those of us who didn’t sleep that night were on edge, as music videos, repetitive ads and movies played uninterrupted on channels that were supposed to be broadcasting an endless ticker of results and other updates from the count. TV anchors, at first, noted delays, with no explanation as to why. And then they just didn’t appear anymore.

The SMS news alert that Mahinda Rajapaksa had vacated Temple Trees came just before 6 am. It was just before day-break and the roads around Kollupitiya, close to Temple Trees, were deserted from the vantage of the hotel room window. No sooner than the alert was received, I drove out with a colleague to see what was going on around the area. The first thing we saw were commandos, with almost robotic precision, getting into buses. We hadn’t noticed them coming and we didn’t know where they had been. We couldn’t quite figure out what they were doing lining the streets. We didn’t know where the buses were taking them.

The only other time I have seen commandos of this stature, sporting the garb and gear they did, was just outside the hotel Sarath Fonseka was garrisoned in on the night of a previous Presidential Election, on January 26, 2010. But that’s another story. Driving past Temple Trees on Galle Road on the morning of the 8th, we shot a photo of the sun rising from behind the closed, black gates that on Twitter, that day and the next, went viral. There was no sign of life from within the compound and for the first and last time in my life, no visible signs of any security personnel or armed guards either. In that general area, signs of daily life – the Dimo battas delivering the day’s newspapers, shop owners offering joss sticks to garlanded deities, the liberal and vigorous sprinkling of water infused with turmeric forcing mendicants to crawl out of makeshift beds on pavement and shop front, the Abans street-sweepers and garbage collectors decked in orange – increased with rising sun. There were, however, no school children around. There were also no tourists. Galle Face green was, also for the first and last time of my life, without a single person on it. Stray dogs looked lost without humans to chase, be chased by or play with. The scenes in and around Galle Face and Kollupitiya that morning were surreal.

Throughout the 9th, a few of us kept expecting news of a Rajapaksa regime fueled rebellion. News of the first open-air swearing in an Executive President was received with a mixture of concern and curiosity. What would it be like? What would the new President say? Was it safe? As hundreds flocked to Independence Square around half past six in the evening on the 9th, I feared the worst – a lone sniper, a grenade, a pistol or worse, a larger bomb, ending the new President’s life as soon as he ascended to office. Commandos, different to those we had seen in the morning, lined the area as the light faded. A friend, in late-stage pregnancy, had rushed to take a tuk-tuk to see the swearing in. Joggers and walkers, some foreign but most local, mixed with those who invaded the grounds. The mood was ebullient. Videos and photos of the swearing in capture a carnival of hope. Too many people crowded the area the President was being sworn in, and looked far more uncomfortable than we were. The tensest moments were when the new President arrived and the duration of his first speech, which was regularly interrupted by spontaneous cheer. The loudest cheer was at the moment, a few minutes in, the new President proclaimed he would be the last to hold the office.

And then he left, seemingly with all our adrenaline too. The effects of close upon 48 hours of sleeplessness, anxiety, fear and near-constant tension resulted in the relatively quick dissipation of the crowds once the ceremony was concluded. Everyone took selfies, photos and videos. At night that day was the first full realization, beyond incredulity and residual fear, that a new chapter had dawned, and the Rajapaksa regime was over. No one expected it. No one.

In the campaign to elect the common candidate against the incumbent, an organic, extremely diverse collective of individuals, with no common politics or links save for an interest in facilitating the end of the Mahinda Rajapaksa Presidency, came together to architect and action a guerrilla campaign using social media to counter the then government’s propaganda. It is now known that PM Modi’s social media guru was present in the country to help the Rajapaksas. We had only our own skills and networks. From talented graphic designers to data scientists, cartoonists to writers, this collective – which had no head, no organizational hierarchy and wasn’t headquartered in any physical location - took on spin, rumour, falsehood and propaganda manufactured by the regime and responded to it, blow for blow, fire with fire. With no access to any mainstream media, Facebook and WhatsApp were two primary tools in content dissemination, plus a handful of websites that ran critical content. From large billboards all over Colombo with grotesque images of LTTE atrocities and the capture of private media through fear and murder to the complete transformation of state media as propaganda arms, the Rajapaksa regime did what it could to thwart democratic process and electoral institutions.

It didn’t work. Which is to say, electoral outcomes, even with the best-laid plans, often tend to surprise pollsters and pundits alike. Arguably, elections are in Sri Lanka the closest one gets to an emotional pandemic, where heart rules over mind and tick or preference is made more by reflex, not reflection. But that’s not an excuse to stay at home and disengage. One can fear the outcome but still vote with hope. Please vote. We simply mustn’t go back to how things were, just a few years ago.

Schrodinger’s Cat: The futility of election analysis and forecasting

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Kumar David is no more. He passed way in America.

The Irrelevance of Gota’s & Sajith’s Programmes

Schrodinger’s Cat: The futility of election analysis and forecasting

November 9, 2019, 2:48 pm

by Kumar David

A commentator on a popular website remarked: "It’s a waste of time analyzing or deciphering the manifestos of the major parties. If one scrutinizes previous manifestos of new-style Presidents or old-style Prime Ministers, what have they delivered?" Another commentator added "A manifesto is worthless unless it is implemented. What proportion of past manifestos have been? Only a small fraction; an indictment of the rectitude of candidates". Both commentators had Gotabaya and Premadasa in mind. Hence one side of the coin is: The manifestos published by the two candidates are simply a collection of empty platitudes put together by drafters whose objective is to maximize their hero’s votes. Their relationship to what a candidate may do in power is tenuous; at best it conveys a feel for the candidate’s personality and style. The other side of the coin is: A great majority of people do not read any of it. They cut out an attractive picture of ‘their’ candidate to stick on the wall, the other sides manifesto lines kitchen shelves. Irrelevant and unread that is the fate of both manifestos.

This brings me to a valid point. Few people are likely to change their minds at this late stage. Nearly everybody has made up his/her mind; when you read this it’s less than a week to 16 November and I would be surprised if even a tiny percentage is still undecided. Sometime on 17-18 November we will know the outcome, but paradoxically the decision is already made; it’s not that the outcome is uncertain, it is certain, but will only be revealed when the box is opened so to speak. This brings me to an oft-told story celebrated among physicists.

It’s known as the Schrodinger’s Cat paradox – it’s not a paradox for quantum physicists; these things though bizarre for folks like us, is the stuff in which these weirdos wallow. But let’s not knock quantum physics; its predictions have always proved correct. Schrodinger’s Cat (SC) is a thought experiment to "explain in a simple way" how a quantum event can be both "positive" and "negative" at one and the same time. It’s a bit odd but SC is a quantum-cat which can be both dead and alive at the same time, it is in a suspended or superposed state of being both dead and alive simultaneously. This is only till a certain thing happens (I will tell you about that in a moment). When it happens, and only then, the two states collapse into one; the cat becomes definitely dead or definitely alive.

Schrodinger put his feline in a partitioned box like a physicist does to a particle in a lab. Then he closed the partition not knowing in which section the cat was. At random he released a toxic gas into one compartment. If the unfortunate beast was in the wrong place it was kaput, if not, it was fine. Schrodinger then cleared the gas and lifted the partition. In the interim, and this is crucial, the cat was neither dead nor alive, it was in a state of suspended probability. That is in the interim it was both dead and alive; mathematically its life was in a state of superposition. Shakespeare’s cat can "be" or "not be"; Schrodinger’s cat can "be" and "not be" at the same time. You’ve got to relax your credulity a bit and make a concession to these weird physicists. Quantum theory creates a weighty conceptual gap between Shakespeare’s deterministic universe and Schrodinger’s probabilistic world.

Now what’s that "certain thing"? It’s when someone opened the box and looked. Suddenly the two states collapsed into one and became one state; mathematically the cat goes either dead or alive, but only at that moment. It’s not that the cat was either dead or alive all along but we didn’t know till we opened the box. No, no that would be conventional common sense. For these quantum chaps it’s not like that; the cat is neither dead nor alive but in a suspended state of probability until the box is opened, then it decides to be one or the other. [To jump ahead, Mahinda Deshapriya declaring the results is equivalent to Schrodinger opening the box].

What’s the link between the futility of manifestos, everybody having made up their minds but nobody having a way of knowing the outcome, and Schrodinger’s troublesome feline? The point is this: Though the outcome of the presidential election is already known to the divinities, in that it floats in a state of superposition between Gota and Sajith, not on the life of any nitwit pollster, fiction loving manifesto drafter, or blabbering TV commentator, will it be known to humans until the count is over. Don’t believe those who say this one is ahead or that one is behind, don’t believe those who predict how many Tamils will abstain, or claim how many Sinhala-Buddhists respond to Gota’s abrupt anti-Tamil turn after his (and Tissa and Namal’s) effort to woo the Tamil electorate and the TNA flopped.

Suspend judgment on whether the national security bullshit and scaremongering post April bomb attack will panic Sinhala-Buddhists. It has admittedly panicked Premadasa who thought it necessary to open his manifesto with a fusillade about national security and saying in all but words "I will be as tough as Gota; mother Lanka is safe from separatist Tamils and terrorist Muslims in my custody". Gota and Sajith are competing to sound tougher than each other on security, both whipping it up to appeal to the herd instincts of the Sinhala electorate. On this matter, specially at election time, Sri Lanka has not grown up.

Of course Gota is more Buddhist fundamentalist; the other joker can’t build a sufficient number of temples by 16 November to compete. Is it true that Gota’s manifesto is available only in Sinhala and English while Sajith’s is out in all three languages? (The NPP/JVP manifesto is still (November 7) not available in English!) Where does this leave us? Forget about skinning Schrodinger’s cat; forget about trying to second guess the nuances of voting – how many firsts will X get, how many seconds will Y get. Simply dig in and do what you gotta do! And what’s that?

Krishna reminded Arjuna on the battlefield at Kurukshetra: "Look boy, you gotta do your duty; keep your lodestar clear". So, first-for-Anura; second-for-Sajith; nothing less, nothing more. Let’s not tweak our voting intentions, deluded by imagined scenarios of how this candidate may fare or that candidate poll. We cannot know at this time whether anyone will poll 50% firsts, or whether it will go to second count. Here is what we need to be clear about: AKD represents the coalition that the country will have to depend on in the future if it is to go forward,

What kind of a government will Gota’s, if he wins, be? Former army boss Daya Ratnayake has shot his mouth off on YouTube. Rattlesnake-arrogance exhibits the military mindset if ever it gains power. Believe me it’s not very far from fascism; go to https://youtu.be/nyISBGvhNjU to experience the Ratnayake show in person.

What about class? Gota’s base is cross-class; one portion is nouveau-rich business interests, a section of the Sinhala middle and professional classes and ex (and current) military types. I call them the Shangri La throng. The other portion is the urban, semi urban and informal sector; those with what you might call api Sinhala emotions. Sajith’s base is also cross-class; Maharaja type big business, elite and traditional UNP loyalists that Ranil can draw in, and a different segment of middle, lower-middle, urban and informal sectors. In respect of the petty-bourgeoisie classes, the vector that divides Gota and Sajith’s portions is Sinhala-Bauddha-abimane.

Finally, what about international experience? Last week I drew up a list of about a dozen trouble spots where governments are under pressure to quit. The examples varied from Hong Kong where youthful fascist mobs terrorize the streets, to insoluble contradictions in Lebanon and Iraq, and places where a settlement seems difficult – Bolivia and Chile. Streets explode when socio-economic contradictions, personal greed for power and/or hysteria take control. We cannot rule out unrest in Sri Lanka on 17-18 November or in the following weeks. If on Nov. 17 it becomes known that a count of second preferences is needed, it will be a red-alert for Gota supporters. There will be agitation at street corners and at SLPP gatherings. The grassroots will stir to disrupt or influence the counting. Allegations of fraud will fly like embers in a California wildfire. Plots are possible – recall foxy Dayananda Dissanayake’s jillmart and rumours of his sojourn at Temple Trees. Endeavoring to stop Schrodinger’s feline from having the last laugh – that is attempting to subvert the true result – will lead to interminable chaos since no one will be able to get away with jillmart this time.

No game changer in sight

No game changer in sight

The laws and bylaws governing our election (J.R.Js bizarre Mantra or Kumantrana election) is repugnant.

Only the first two who puts the head beyond the tape is valid.

The third at the tape is severed by the tension of the tape.

What it means is that the race is tight and is not one horse race.

It is tight and no one will get the required 50% due to their own folly of putting dummy candidates, preferring them to vote the second preferential vote.

This election will be known for delay in declaring of the result.

There will be violence soon after the election (pent up emotions subdued before the election will come out like a cork of a bottle of good wine) and nobody will get over 45% (my original analysis was 40% but I wish to revise it due to large margin of error).

Ceylonese voters are known for huge surprises and the voting pattern of the first voters and the non-committal intelligentsia will determine the outcome.

So my advice is for you to buy few extra pints of beer (there are bottles now for Rs.360/=) and or V.S.O.A and stock them for consumption and not for resale with hiked prices.

The hording is already on!

I do not go for arrack since majority are adulterated and unluckily for our neighborhood, there is no proper bar but liqueur transported in polythene bags (one, two or three tots packed in small polythene bags and then put in a large black polythene bag).

I of course broke my self abstaining of 9 months (including liqueured chocolates) briefly for a lemon gin in my favorite bar and diluted the peg with tonic and a big fish soup and would go back to my abstaining routine until the election is over.

The simple reason I drink ONLY spirits not taxes imposed on them and I want my friends coming from abroad to bring bottles of wine not arrack without taxes.

Well my favorite is now iced lemon tea or cinnamon tea but due to poor quality of tea I am now leaning on coffee.

Now a brief quotes for the three front runners without naming them.

One’s understanding of ground level politics is worse than J.L. Pieris and reads a prompt like a parrot.

The other is totally obsessed with Podions and simple Simons (if you use these words now one will get a hit on your head with a Kithul Polla) and forgets to address the economic and debt traps of this country.

The third is totally confused in strategy and spoils the soup for the second by pretending to be the game changer.

None of them is a game changer and poor voter has to bite the dust.

A piece from one editorial comment below.

By the time you read next Sunday’s issue of this newspaper, the presidential election would have been concluded and Sri Lanka’s seventh executive president declared, and hopefully sworn. That is, of course, if there is no delay in the counting as neither of the two principal contenders had one vote more than the magical 50% of the ballots cast. If that be the case, second and third preferences of the voters favouring the lead contenders will be counted and added to their tallies. If either still does not reach 50% plus one, the candidate polling the majority of votes will be declared the winner.