Ceylon Political Pizza (Rather Pissu or Mania)

Ceylon Political Pizza (Rather Pissu or Mania)

If I do not make some political predictions my friends near and far might think, I have kicked the bucket.

So here, I am, my prediction is (similar to my neutrality during the Cricket Wold Cup) there will be mayhem in this country, the moment the election is declared. 
 

The current relatively quiet atmosphere is artificial.

It is just like “ the calm before the storm”.

My current analysis is better than Sri-Lankan umpires’ decision making on and outside the field.

But it is current for only now but with the fluidity on the ground my predictions might dissipate into thin air in a matter of minutes.

Points I am stressing are the things that will make it more fluid in the the future.

If you are a Sri-Lankan who wish to come for holiday one should think twice before embarking.

A true tourists must reroute ones itinerary well in advance, since there will be violence at all levels including in hotels where politician hide for cover.

1. Point One is Violence.

There will be violence at all levels.

Police will look the other way in political violence worse than the Easter Sunday.

That is their inherent behavior on record in the past and more so in current scenario.

They are less proactive but basically retroactive in response.

a) Unlike in the past, the first violence or killing will be based on religious overtures.

b) The second wave of violence will be on racial grounds.

Both are good cover for politicians of all parties.

c) The of Party Violence, intra and inter party violence will be petty and minimal and will emerge before and after the nomination papers are handed over.

They are minimal for the first time in our history, simply because a) and b) violence strategies have been taken over by the party affiliates of the criminal gangs that operate during election.

Only petty party converts are available for c) category.

Point number Two is Muslim vote.

It will not make a dent this time round.

Partly due to violence and partly due to clerics overtures.

Point Number Three is Tamil Politicians will make a significant dent for all parties.

Tamil politicians have been quite resilient, intelligent and politically realistic.

Their analysis of the political ground realities and I think they can very well determine the wellbeing of our politics.

Kumar David and Rajan Philip from Australia should make full capital of the little window of sanity in politics.

Ratnajeevan Hoole will have no impact this time round.

Number Four is Timing of the Elections.

It has no meaning at all since the polarization has been rigid and already established.

Snap election dream of current president is a non starter.

Number Five is the “Third Force”.

Its steam has evaporated.

Its imputes were hijacked by the current regime and was slowly but surely throttled.

Come election it will be in ashes “not the ashes of Phoenix”.

Number Six is the Crusaders or the New Aspirants of Power

They are the “Jokers in the Pack” headed by Nagananda.

They would do worse than Field Marshal Fonseka.

Number Seven is how many candidates.

There will be candidates to fill the front page of a Sunday Paper.

Ballot paper will be so huge it has to be rolled over several times like a “Toilet Paper”and not a sheet of paper.

Number Eight is the turn over at voting

It will overtake the record of 2015, if the current commissioner is handling it.

Number Nine is the outcome?

My current estimate is nobody will get the required 50%.

This is the only prediction, I will get absolutely correct.

Number Ten, what would the Current Commissioner should do before the election.

He should resign before a snap election is declared by the current incumbent after all Esala Pereharas are over.

My guess is that the current president won’t have any crowd gathering Public Meetings left for him and if he waits any longer, he will even lose the deposit.

The election commissioner would sure get a heart attack trying to balance the 50% from “Second Vote Counting” and only way to avoid that scenario is to retire in “Good Spirit” since everybody including politicians like this amiable personality.

He is a national asset. 

He will do a good job as a “Future President” elected by the members of the Parliament, if a new constitution is formulated on those lines saving colossal wastage of public money to elect a president.

All these guys wanted to abolish it in 2015 but none of them acted on that promise.

On that ground alone one should be disqualified to hold that post or reelected again!

That is the paradox of our politics.

PS. Sorry for not writing anything about J.V.P. 
It will be an ex-party!