Current ground situation is similar.
Brief history of political violence is recorded here for posterity.
All associated with assassination of SWRD probably by Ozie Corea.
Who masterminded this was not clear but JRJ was a prime suspect.
I say this because of JRJ goon's involvement in killing of a Dental Surgeon, in Borella.
Both dental surgeon and JRJ's son's involvement with a good looking girl was the reason.
I do not know what happened to this girl but after this JRJ's son became a Monk in Thailand, for one year.
I think he had a fling with a Burger girl subsequently.
He ultimately became a special Task Force Commander during LTTE terror.
Both are dead and I do not have any personal animosity, posthumously.
Dudley Senanayake was a nice guy but he was a weak leader.
That became the tragedy for original UNP.
However, JRJ remained in the party until he became the President.
Current situation, is similar in UNP (what is left of) and it has got a week leader who is RW.
I voted for Shelton Ranaraja in Senkadagala seat.
Then I voted for N.P. Wimalasena.
Both were UNP MPs.
Later I switched sides and voted for Anuruddha Ratwatta but he lost by 25 votes.
Then I voted to oust Sirimavo.
After that, I did not vote for 40 years and part of that time I was abroad.
I was here on a holiday when JRJ had the infamous referendum.
That put me off politics for life.
Unlike his father Sajith is also a weak leader.
This allowed President Anura Dissanayake to become a relatively strong leader with the Rajapaksa Regime having a downward trend.
I do not assume they (SLPP) are gone for good since, SLFP is currently dead (but few of the SLFP all timers are supporting Sajith).
After this election both UNP and SLFP are going to be summarily dismissed by the voter with their leaders.
My Tentative prediction
Summary including bonus seats
Assuming all have gradually lost political power due to poor leadership, during the last 6 weeks.
1. Tamil in the North = 25 seats = 500,000 - Vote Base
2. Muslims in the East and Elsewhere = 10 seats = 250,000 - Vote Base
3. SJB = 50,000,000 loss of 500,000 = 90 seats - Vote Base (that includes Tamil and Muslim candidates)
He had 55,000,000 in 2020 but went down to 35,000,000 in 2024 due to Ranil undermining him in preference to Anura, expecting RW would get a second chance in (a Pipe Dream) future election.
4. NPP/JVP = 40,000,000 - Vote Base- loss of 200,000 to SLPP = 80 seats
Minimum of 100 seats was my previous estimate but it has come down by 20 due to SLPP reentering politics.
Ranajan Ramanayake coming to the fray has very bad influence on JVP/NPP.
They tried to take him to their fold and now crying foul.
5. SLPP = 13,000,000 - Vote Base- loss of 55,000,000 to both NPP/JVP and UNP = 13 seats.
I have put unlucky 13 to this party by chance phenomenon, originally had 15 in total.
They loss almost 117 seats from 2020.
They got 2/3rd majority (152) by luring Muslim and Tamil MPs.
Won't happen this time round, that include NPP/JVP.
6. Rest = 600,000- Vote Base = 3 seats including a bonus seat.
This portion would be gobbled up by Ranjan Ramanayake.
7. Undetermined = 3 seats.
I guess Tharindu Uduwegedara is one of them.
He has had a robust YouTube for ages unlike Ranjan Ramanauyake and his comments even though biased are read by many YouTube guys of his age.
He is only 30 years old while Ranajn is pretty old at 60 years, twice his age, being an actor he thrives on make up.
8. UNP = 200,000 - Vote Base- loss of 23,000,000 = 1 seat most likely a bonus seat.
I do not think Naganada Kodituwakku gets a single seat. He is completely out of touch of our political reality. This will be true for Dilith Jayaweera.
The assumption is SLPP even though very unpopular would not like to Give Up and see it's voter base hijacked by NPP/JVP.
They fight hard when chips are down for very survival in politics.
That is the bottom line and "Clean Sweep" by NPP/JVP is only a fantasy.
The fight is between SJB and NPP/JVP, SJB having a slight edge, due to its support base from Tamils and Muslims.
They are the ones who would get most of the bonus seats.
By the way, at worse UNP/SJB has 30% Voter Base and that is solid unlike the JVP 4.5%.
SLPP Voters Base currently is probably 10%. What it means is 1 in 10 is a guy who is racially biased and they thrive on this voter base.
It is statistically significant.
SLPP and UNP not been able to top the list would get substantially less bonus seats.
I would stick with my mathematics of the election and the Hung Parliament Concept which is pretty old in Ceylon Politics.
This election is pivotal in assessing the baseline Voter Preference for political analysts and I hope and pray that at least 85% would turn up for voting.
I am an amateur political analyst, usually after the fact/event, being a retired pathologist.
I am a Good Gambler but not a betting guy or a betting analyst.
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