Global Warming, Floods and IT industry, any connection?

 Posted on November 22, 2011

I have two inbuilt idiosyncrasies 

One is to link any topic with Rebirth.

The other is to link to Linux or computers.

This is free of Rebirth and so better read on. 

But this has a connection with floods 

Global Warming, Floods and IT industry, any connection?

I was post postponing writing about global warming for sometime and it was related to bird watching and not IT industry.

 

I predicted this 5 years ago (Flooding) and at that time every American Scientist, including Scientific American was skeptic but the email doctoring incident bared before the Earth Summit (in which only European Nations and New Zealand and the former PM Helen Clark stood against that conviction) and all Scientists are in broad agreement now that global warming is taking shape in real time.

I never though the floods in Thailand would adversely effect the IT industry.

There is acute shortages of Hard drives and the supply will fall behind demand by over 6 months.

The best Christmas present one can give this time round is a good external hard drive.

I cannot go for a SSD but bought a SSD hard drive on loan since the vendor guys alerted me well in advance. Even the computer manufacturing will come down and this will add to the HP Saga and it is supposed to be stockpiling hard drives (supposed to be ordered for PCs they discontinued producing) to make gain of the losses they had with tablets.

This is a strange world and one does not know which will hit you first (debt crisis or floods).

It is both in 2025 December. 

So don’t load your hard drives with videos and if you have money buy at least an external drive.

Happy Christmas for guys and Girls in the IT industry.

I will be writing about global warming in Sri-Lankan perspective soon and not about computers and IT.

Guys this is a good time to promote Cloud Computing and their Server Capacity.

Hurry Up.

Read my book on "Cloud computing" in Kindle if you have spare time.

 

This piece is in progress.

I had very close relationship to Mahaveli Project before, during and after.

First of all, I am a medical guy in retirement with special interest in mother nature. I am not an engineer but had many engineering friends than medical.

 

I did some reading and research on Mahveli Project in my leisure time. I had direct association with the Engineers who directly contributed to the project from design stage.

To begin with, this is an outline and I am going by my memory. I had a one drawer full of documents and the big Map of the Surveyor General of Ceylon. 

I am now in Australia and I do not have the original material and maps. Before leaving Ceylon, I handed over the Surveyor General's Publication, to one of my kindergarten friends, whose obsession is to go and visit each and every remote village in this country. Unlike me he has been to most of the places devastated by the current tragedy. 

He must be more shocked than me.

 Background

1. We are known for flash floods.

One cardinal theory of flood management is for every 100 years there going to be a flood that overtakes the previous worst by many a times.

I forget the parentage but it is many a times but let us imagine it is 30% worse the previous worst.

2. The corollary is that the flood plane has to be identified for the next worse episode and no construction should be allowed, blocking the drainage plane considered to be the next worst.

3. All the governments including the present government ignore this important presumptive fact.

We were fully under prepared.

4. If the volume excess water in any reservoir is considered to be in excess of the flood plane capacity,  that excess volume of water should be drained off well before any unintended catastrophe. 

This can be calculated in advance with a simple mathematical formula.

  

5. Water is a huge Potential Energy and has unfathomable capacity to cause havoc. 

 

It is a fundamental rule to be feared and prepared for.

6. We have 101 rivers in CEYLON covering the entire length and breath of the country

7. We are known for droughts.

8. When I last investigated factual base, say in 1995, 10% percent of those rivers had gone dry due to consistent droughts.

These river beds have water only during the monsoons or else bone dry.

9. Because of frequent droughts we tend to ignore the potential of floods.

10. Now let me come to the Mahaveli Project.

11. I was totally against the Kotmale Project with reasons.

I used to monitor the rain on yearly basis and keep a  simple record, simply because, the approach road to our house goes under water with torrential rain.

The rain comes down at exact time, during  the rainy season

I come home before the rain and I wait at a higher ground to pick our daughter who is dropped off from the school van at the Panideniya junction (not Peradeniya junction which is one and half kilometers away)

Three Wheeler drivers refuse to ply on this road that goes under very rapidly.

It is due to the sudden release of water from the Kothmale dam. 

 

I remove my shoes and tie them with the lace and put them on my shoulder to prevent them getting soaked. 

They do not dry overnight, if wet.

My daughter does the same thing with her white canvas shoes.

12. One day, my daughter got almost washed away had I not been there to pull her out. After this incident she cannot leave Panideniya junction until the water drains off.  In 20 minutes the water drains to Mahaveli river. 

Not a big ask to wait for a few minutes. 

Better option is to beat the rain and come home early

That is why I hate Kothmale Project.

13. Accelerated Mahaveli Project was a disaster.

According to my engineering friends there were many short cuts made to the project proper due to hastening of it.

Proper environmental (flood plane is only one aspect) assessments were not done.

14. I sold my rackety car since our house did not have a garage.

Besides, the access road to our house was built on a stream that had gone dry for many decades.  This access road gets flooded with every rain and I cannot park the car on the main road that also gets flooded..

15. I am glad we left CEYLON.

Had I been there I would have been on this road doing make shift repairs to the drain which gets filled up with soil. Then the water flows on the road damaging its surface. In the current scene, I may have got even washed away and would have become a piece or an element in government statistics.

The main road got flooded during the devastation and I am pretty sure the access road may have slipped away to the paddy field below.

This scenario is more than likely.

I tried to do an ariel survey using Google but could not.

Just curiosity.

There are 3 houses at the lowest level and two of the owners have cars. They were obsessed with maintaining this portion of the road simply because of their cars.

Incidentally, I was the only one having a car in early 1980s. Others did not except a guy who had an official jeep belonging to the Department of Agriculture.

One Sunday, I visited the house of the retired Assistant Registrar Student Services, to ask him whether I could park my car in his garage and I would pay for the services. 

He did not say Yes or No.

When, I went next time round to ask permission, I saw the garage  was packed with firewood. I knew it was a big NO and made my own assessment of his personalty. 

I manged to find an alternative place and his name was Mr. Nissaaka. Few years alter, he fell sick and I did what i could do when he was admitted to a private hospital. His adopted daughter was a technician in the Department of Forensic whom I did not know much. She had joined after I left Peradeniya University..

the guy mentioned above, did not know I was a doctor at that time or pretended that he did not know my status in the university. He may have been a couple of years senior but already retired from his post by that time. This guy had Herpes zoster a year or two later and he became blind in one eye.  I did not volunteer Acylovar treatment which could have prevented his blindness. It is a cardinal principle in our time not to volunteer treatment unless expressly requested for.

 

"Pinata beheth denna thahanam".

All these incidents made me to get rid of the car which is by nature is a depreciating asset.

16. Coming to the floods, the last major flood was in 1954 and I was not attending primary school, then. But I can very well remember my siblings were at home for over two weeks, not going to schools as usual. We were house bound and I did not know the meaning of floods, then.

I hated rain in any case.

Then again we had a minor floods in between and I got stuck in Natha Devale having brought my mother to see Kandy Dalada Perehara.

That day it rained non stop.

That is the last time I went to see Perahara and I told my mother she has come alone, thereafter.  She did eventually stop going to watch Perahara.

My obsession was to take photos of Elephants stationed in front of Natha Devale.

17. I did not have any premonition of this current catastrophic floods and in any case, it was not due until 2054, according to my statistics.

We are only in to the 70s of that 100 year grace period.

18. That is why I say this is the CURSE brought on by this NPP/JVP Regime who are worse than Niganntayan of India but confined Niragamikayo who despise Buddhist way of life.

I am convinced that this catastrophe was brought by an unforeseen CURSE.

19. Irony, is that Buddha was born in Teldeniya which is under water after Victoria Project. Victoria Project was a deliberate attempt by the British Monarch  to bury and erase the evidence of Buddha was born there for good.

Gaminie Dissanayake paid the price early in his life due to this Mega Mahaveli Project. In fact, he was instrumental in the British Process to bury the real history of Buddha.

Chandrika did know of the LTTE attempt to kill Gamnie Dissanayake and my Guess Work or gut feeling is that she may have done it herself before the LTTE for political reasons.

Of course, she lost one of her eyes as a curse and she was a known proxy of LTTE. 

Subtle CURSE befall on all these nasty politicians and JRJ had a nasty cancer which I witnessed in Navaloka Hospital.

S. W. R. D. is another guy I disliked for many reasons.

His "Anda Govi Panatha" (Tenant Land Act) is one of them. 

We lost our prime paddy land to the Anda Goviya (Tenant Farmer) who was a crook. He cheated my mum and one day I chased him out and said never cross me again. I never saw him again and I do not know who owns that land now but the paddy land was filled up and a house was built which was a direct violation our "Paddy Act".

This guy S. W. R. D. brought in dissent, and lawlessness.

To this day, people used to say, his burial site gets hit by lightening as a part of the CURSE, he brought into this Buddhist country.

Disunity!

20. I am glad Jayaratne Pathiraarchchi is on overdrive and bearing these facts right and left.

Thank YOU Jayaratne Pathiraarachchi for putting out history in correct perspective. 

21. This piece is out of place, if I do not link to my connection to NPP/JVP and Indian RAW. 

I think the details are in a separate piece here.

Indians RAW plotted to kill me.

I was 3rd or 4th in their list.

The contract was given to DJVP.

JVP guy who was in my staff named Ratnayake alerted me. In return, I told him Premadasa goons are planning to kill all of you and find a place and hide. He had kids. He survived but my vegetable vendor and my favorite patient a little girl of 7 did not.

Neck of the vegetable vendor was slit and he bled to death. 

Mahaveli security guys did not open the gate, so he could get timely treatment. The little girl also died due to same reason. 

She had asthma. 

The asthma was brought on by the "Fear Psychosis" spread by the DJVP. Of course, DJVO guys were rounded up and killed and the doctor at Manikhinna used to give me a running commentary of bodies piled up at his mortuary.

 

I stopped calling him after 138 bodies.

 

That number I still remember to this day but real number was far in excess of that number.

The little girl's death made me to revise my treatment protocol.

I give a stock of medicine to last 6 weeks.

I give additional prescriptions with renewal notice up to  3 months. 

I give written instruction in a piece of paper with underlined phrase "do not look for me" but reach the nearest doctor or the dispenser.

22. RAW was behind me because I was working with Americans. 

They knew I had the American Satellite in our Operating Theater.

How they got to know, I do not know.

Most likely guess work.

Only I knew it was a Satellite.

I quickly sent the satellite to Colombo for safe keeping. 

If I remember right, I accompanied, it under the guise of taking a patient to Colombo.

 

Indians for ages hampered and undermined our progress.

Do not believe in Indians.

That is the CRIME Anura has committed believing Indians.

23. In a previous occasion when I was working in the University, I had only 20 Rupees in my hand. I could buy a packet of Anchor milk (just to remind the price of packet of powered milk under 70 years of misrule). These JVP guys forced the banks to be closed and we made a secret operation to open them on a Sunday and pay the Salary of the University Staff.

This was the most secretive operation I was involved in. 

I took my salary and resigned immediately.

I knew the JVP guys would be behind my back and 6 months later I joined Navaloka Hospital, not as a doctor but as an administrator.

24. I was in charge of Foreign Liqueur during trying time of NPP / JVP insurrection.

This was at IMMI.

But I only used our own VSOA.

Never Whiskey but Gin and Tonic was my standard before a Billiard or Snooker Game. 

I used to celebrate Poya Day with VSOA on those days. 

Keys were with me for safe keeping and if I get a order from a distinguish guy (not politicians), I give a call to the Bar Boy and dispense the item.

 

There were 11 foreign country agents with different tastes of alcoholic beverages.

One day, police office came in for a bottle of arrak on a Poya Day.

I refused quoting the law but told the bar tender he can drink as much as he wishes with his uniform on.

 

He did not stay long but had a drink free of charge.

I am totally off alcohol now and stopped smoking at 34. Never a single cigarette in UK. I thank late Mangala Samaraweera and Ranil Wickrasinghe for my abstinence. When they jacked up taxes on alcohol I abruptly stopped and never started.

I drink alcohol not taxes is my moto.

25. Chicken was my favorite taste with alcohol. 

I hated barbecue.

There was a chicken special in my name in our restaurant.

26. Cleaning the Swimming pool according international standard was one of my major duties to prevent Infectious Hepatitis.

It was endemic then.

With our current disaster Infectious Hepatitis would certainly resurface.

27. Killing the stray dogs was another duty using lethal and inhumane strychnine.

28. Writing an introductory Note Book on Tropical Diseases for foreign visitors was another task.

I did not have a Secretary but  used the secretary of the administrator for dictating one piece  at a time.

I forgot to keep a copy but years later redid the writing. 

My blogging and writing started with it.

29. Into Maps and Map reading.

I was good in geography at primary school. I could remember all the countries and capitals by the age of 10.

30. One thing, I could not do was to get a job in Northern Territories of Australia and work for at least two years. Instead, I went to West Coast of New Zealand but Maoris were alien to me.

 

The River Mahaveli fascinates me

Not because of its nature but because of its use by ancient kings to protect Kandy city. I have a book on Rivers and Water Falls of Ceylon at Amazon, one is advised to read it.

When I was writing this book I did some Research Work and I realized that it's current route is not natural but man made. There are only two bridges over Mahaveli in Kandy and both were built by the British to protect Kandy from sabotage.

In my belief Heen Ganga is the only natural stream that flows according to geographical contours with gradual descent, to the Mahaveli River.

I have forgotten the details now.

Coming back to Floods we had a major flood in Kandy when I was a little kid in 1952 or 1954. 

I was not attending school but I could remember for one solid month we were home bound and no schooling for my siblings.

It was very gloomy.

Years later I saw the  stone erected in Kandy, Mulgampola to mark the highest water level. I believe this landmark is no more.
Probably removed by the municipality vandals.

The present Gatambe Vihara was supposed to have not gone under water.
It became famous and prominence, after that fact.
I can remember only one other time that it rained over two weeks during Esala Perahera. I hid in the Paththini Devale for over two hours on that day. 

It was my only shelter. I had to walk home to Ampitiya with no buses. My mum cam with me was a wrong recollection above.

I did not go for Esala Perahera for a very long time after this incident.
 

Elephants are my favorites but now I say they should not be paraded for display and they belonged to the jungle.

What I remember as a young guy was that every time I went to Colombo by bus even with minor rain Peradeniya and Gatambe go under water for a few hours. 

The bus stops at Peradeniya and stay until water subsides.
Unlike nowadays, rains were heavy.
No problem if I come by train.
The train track is at a higher level.

This went on until grand Mahaveli Project was completed and the Maskelliya dam came into existence.

Only when there is spill over from Maskelliya Dam we tend to have minor floods in Peradeniya.
 

The Rugger Grounds at Peradeniya goes under water (not cricket ground, hockey ground and track and field, they were at a higher level). No more  rugger played now, mainly due to clashes of students of the two rival schools.
 
There is a stream that flows by the side of these grounds and I used to stroll through this pristine stream looking for Giant Danios.

Rugger ground is the wettest and the muddiest.

My research work lead me to reading large books on geography.

My particular interest was the stretch of road that leads from Peradeniya to Panideniya. It goes under water ever so often, even with minor rains.  There is a little stream that comes under Kandy Colombo road and then flows to Mahaveli River by the side of the Railway Bridge in Peradeniya.

On the other side of the river is the Peradeniya University. 

I used walk (short cut) to the University on the rotten iron plates on one side of the bridge. I stopped this habit when I detected that big iron planks were missing and nobody bothered to repair them. Big risk of falling to the river if I missed one of my steps. I can remember I was made to run over these plates by the seniors as a part of the ragging. I did a sprint and the senior guys took at least 20 minutes to cross it.     I realized these guys were not my heroes. One of the saner senior guys said are you mad to run like this. 

That was the end of the ragging.

Coming back again to floods, one of the books said that the next flood beats the one before by a big margin.

It only happens once only in 100 years.

Now going by 1954 it is 70 years now and current rain in Ceylon epitomizes the said geographical fact.
 
What I want to highlight is the mapping of the flood planes.
 
After every major flood it should be mapped to define the extent of the FLOOD PLANE and its devastation.
 
No construction should be allowed and should be designated as reserved area and for natural habitat.
 
People who built quarters within the Flood Plane should be persecuted and should not be paid any compensations at all, for their residences. 

These are done under the pretext of tourist attraction. 

I say tourist should not be allowed to access the protected areas.
 
MCC program of the World Bank and I.M. F.  have mapped these areas with callous disregard to Environmental Impact.

The bottom line is to protect the flood planes without any destruction in the name of  so called development.
 
Our ancestors had harnessed over 100 rivers, without destroying the environment and we should make it a point to respect them protect our country from Mal-designed foreign investment.
 

Mahaveli River Map
 

It is known for its scarcity of proper mapping.
 
Original Mahaveli River starts from Badulla and drain to the Trincomalay plane.

The original water content is not sufficient for agriculture.

It was supplemented by Kotmalay Oya and Pundalu Oya.

I traced them from the Ceylon Surveyors Map and documented in my book. 

Unfortunately, except its basin was exploited for commercial activities the river is not properly mapped for details. 

This is what I have found.
    Nanu Oya.
    Puna Oya.
    Pundalu Oya.
    Kotmale Oya.
    Hatton Oya.
    Atabage Oya.
    Nilamba Oya.
    Nanu Oya (Peradeniya)

Alfred Cyclone and My Previous Encounters

I have slept through two major catastrophes and the third one is building up.

I would  probably sleep that natural disaster, too.

 

This is just to say I can sleep well.

The first was in 1988 in UK.

I was about to return to Ceylon and the family was packed home in advance. I had to continue another month or so of my official duties in UK. If I remember right house was, No.1, Sanctuary Close, Dartford.

I had done my night duty and returned home in the early hours for my usual after work nap, around 9.00AM.

At about 1.30PM I heard the rattle on our backdoor which was interrupting my sleep. I put the table top freezer, fridge and the  tumbler against the door and went to sleep.

At about 7 to 8PM the biggest thunderstorm of the recent history in UK hit the coast ripping trees, power lines and roofs and what not.

I slept through the entire episode and casually gave a call at 1.30PM, why there is no power.

The lady in the telephone exchange said you are hell of a guy and YOU slept through the biggest cyclone. 

Open your door and see for yourself, that the front parapet wall made of bricks  is ripped off.

The next door neighbor's roof was blown off.

We did not call you since you were up all night, yesterday night.

Have you got any gas?

I said, Yes.

Then boil some water and make a cup of tea.

We got your telephone line working and would get your electricity line up soon.

I politely ask if they need any help.

She laughing said; only if you can climb electric poles and trees.

 

I said no way but I am available for any emergency.

Within half an hour I got my electricity.

These guys who did emergency and restorative work were the best in the world.

Next episode was in 1994 July, six years later in New Zealand. 

Similarly, I have packed our family home and sleeping on a Saturday afternoon. I was thrown out of the bed and I guessed I had a dream and kicked a guy in my sleep and I had fallen off the bed. 

But when I looked at the Buddha Image in front of me on the roof, it was tilted and swinging lightly. Then when looked at the pantry, I saw most of the cupboards open and some dangling.

 

It dawn on me that a major earthquake has hit South Island.

Yes, it was and it was 7.2 Richter Scale and I slept through it. 

But the aftershocks lasted 6 weeks.

I was terrified every time an aftershock hit the floor.

I did not sleep well for over 6 weeks with even a slightest of tremor.

I woke up.

Soon after, I left New Zealand, never to return.

 

It looks like disasters seem to follow me.

Regarding, floods it was frequent in Peradeniya, those days.

Thankfully, we lived on a little hill and water never reached our level.

However, the road get flooded with even a minor rain. If one is caught during rain, one has to take off the shoes tie them up with the lace put them on the shoulder and bent the  trouser up to the knee level and wade through the raging water. 

One day, when I came down to pick my daughter after school, we were caught in a torrent more than usual. With clever manoering we managed to reach for the crossroad. 

I was glad I there when she really needed me. 

No schooling on heavy rain was a golden rule afterwards.

Years later much bigger girl was drowned in a canal in the city of Kandy.

When the Project Maskeliya came in to operation part of water from the Maskeliya Oya was diverted to Mahaveli River upstream so our flood plane receded accordingly. 

I was very much active discussing the flood problem with Mahaveli Engineers. 

All of them (hired hands) were not provided with regular places in the Estate Engineering Corporation, after Mahaveli Project was completed.

That was a crime. 

They left Ceylon.

We lost them with their talents.

I never saw them, again.

This is a summary for those reading this piece from Ceylon.

 

Albert cyclone in Australia

It looks like the Albert cyclone soft landed with category 1 but the torrential rain will go on for a week or more.

Hope floods would not do more damage than the winds with waves over 10 feet hitting the coast and hindering the flow of water of the rivers to the sea.

But falling trees are doing enough damage to the power lines causing interruption to electricity in many regions.

Sunshine Coast is relatively safe but Gold Coast is inundated with rain.

Brisbane that was expected to be hit worst was spared by some grace of Weather Gods.

All shops are closed and we are home bound.

I did keep up till 1AM as  usual but dropped to sleep eventually.

No dreams.

 

We had power cut little over 24 hours.

Complete rest for my NUC and cellphone doing the updates.