Sunday, November 19, 2017

Why I ask, "Is Good Governance a DAY DREAM"?


Why I ask;, 
"Is Good Governance a DAY DREAM"?

The simple answer is A BIG YES.

It is a day dream.
I wanted this piece to be titled "The Citizen Groups will never form, or make a dent in the present context or system" but deferred since the formation of Citizen Groups was to usher "Good Governance".
That has to be highlighted.

It should be the bone of contention.
Rest assured, the "New Constitution" will not bring any worthwhile changes except PM and President having a personal tussle to outsmart each other.
One wants to become an Executive PM.
Other wants to run for a another term as President.
Both are very SELFISH!

Power corrupts both institutions.

Both are not for any National Interests but for personal stakes.
That is why I say by next election Citizen Action Groups will melt away or peter out eventually.
In the last election my estimate was 15% for that group but it will never become 40%, my target figure for it to be politically effective.
 
Let me dissect this eventuality ("The Third Force" will never emerge").
Number one "The Current beholders" will never fail to engineer their own Survival Plan, not in the best interest of the Citizen.
They will have the 60/40% proportionate ratio for the survival of the parties.

I am totally against the List MPs.
We cannot get rid of them at an election.
I am even against 10% List MPs.
With the old system of "First Past the Post"we could get rid of the bad guys at least every 5 years.
Now never.
 
This how the local Mafia and drug peddlers enter the parliament.
Very easy ticket (without any effort).
The other is the provincial councils.
They were the worst institutes created and functioned only in the South.

They were not accountable to anybody but ripped off the central government money.

If it was necessary for the North why they were instituted in the South?

Only to increase the political cohabitation and never to solve the ethnic issue.

If we save the money spent on Provincial Councils for five years that would been equivalent to 5 Mahaveli Schemes.

What the North needs is development at grand scale with the knowledge of the beholders (average Tamil Citizen) not corrupt politicians.

Citizen groups will never emerge in the North.

So diverting the masses from the GRIP of political parties, whether Sinhala or Tamil areas is a day dream.

It will never materialize.

Current situation will continue with legal cover for more corruption.

That will be the achievement of the current PM and President.

No change in Body Politics for decades to come.

Political Stalemate!

New constitution is only a "White Wash" to bury, the political corpse of the Citizen Groups, for eternity!


Below is a reproduction of my analysis.
Political Number Crunching-
Factual not Scientific

Analysis on my predictions

Since, I was getting bored watching the TV and listening to political speeches, I did a little analysis of behaviour pattern of our voters and made a bold prediction few days ago.

Political behaviour is not scientific but bizarre in Sri-Lanka.

Any analysis has a very big margin of error BUT if one takes the party glasses that blinds the average voter away one can make a prudent guess and it is not a wild gamble as in a betting table.

It has some degree of cricketing collapse.

If top order falls there is no bottom to hold on to.

It is just the reversal of the distribution of the number of seats in the parliament but blue changing to green after 21 years.


Green changing to blue took 17 years in 1994.
The addition of five years to blue was mainly due to the success in the internal war and defeating of the LTTE.

The change was inevitable in whatever the way one looks at.

SLFP has become a corrupt party.

It cannot hold any more to its values, if it ever had values other than racism.

It is about to bust.

I must say all the parties have very undemocratic constitutions.

The leader reins and stooges listen.

The order of the dictatorial management of parties, the worst to better are,

1. JVP is the worst.
It does not tolerate alternative views and resent criticism within as well as from outside.

That is why JVP will never come into power on its own.
2. Muslim Congress comes very close second.

3. SLFP close to third with intolerant Buddhist bias.

4. UNP the worst under JRJ but somewhat down while in opposition but will roost again, if it comes into power with an absolute majority.

Democratic Tamil parties succumbed under LTTE but it seems only Tamil parties have a semblance of democracy, especially the newly aligned.

The verdict of the presidential election was an excellent example.

They have suffered long enough and they value the power of the ballot and they are coming to proper senses unlike SLFP.

The voter behaviour is shaky and converts are around 30% for SLFP and 25% for UNP.

It used to be 42% at worst for UNP but with the emergence of Tamil and Muslim parties it sank to 25%.

Interestingly 42% was the JRJ's Achilles Tendon which he based our bizarre constitutional system to stay in power eternally BUT he did not have a method to resurrect once the power is lost.

That is why they were in opposition for 21 years.

I have analyzed based on those values and one has to ignore the 2010 swing as a one off reaction after the ethnic war ending (1994 was due to decapitation of leadership ladder of the UNP by LTTE and the political turning point (was mismanaged to a large extent by not solving the national or the ethnic problem) that comes rarely with our bizarre electoral system.

Total voting strength was taken as 120 millions.

The role of citizen action group/s is not analyzed and that can only be done after the election not before since it is a new but healthy phenomenon.

Let us say it is the X-Factor, just like the Hela Urumaya factor in 2004.

I think most of those votes neither will go to SLFP nor UNP but to JVP by default (rather lack of proper alternative).

SLFP-30% of 120 is 36 millions.
How this goes up to 50 millions is the question that needs to be answered.

UNP-25% of 120 is 30 millions.

How this goes to 52 million is easy to predict.

The ethnic minority will vote with UNP.

Let us take it as 20% (25% plus 8% is the real value, nearly 35% which is very significant in terms of total vote and Buddhist percentage is 65%) that would really vote in predominantly Sinhala areas.

It is 24 millions.

One cannot brush it off.

So 30 plus 24 is 54 millions.

(54 millions is 45% of the total which is very unlikely and 52 million is 43% which the base rate at worst scenario for UNP)

I have down graded it by 2 millions as the margin of error.

How does the 36 becomes 50 (they got 57 in the presidential election)?

52 millions is 41.5% of the total and it is very unlikely it will fall below 40% which is 48 million votes)

It is based on every ten there is one which is a HATE VOTE or in fact a negative vote.

There is 12 million and I add 2 million more as my margin of error.

I am convinced an average Sinhala citizen (I have downgraded it to 10% which is not scientific) even though Buddhist (it is against the Dhamma) thrive on JEALOUSY and HATE and it is a solid base which over the years SLFP could harp on and catered for.

I want the voter to use less hate but more wisdom and that is the very reason for the emergence of Citizen Action Groups, which I think is nearly 15% and I want it to become 40%.

30 (SLFP) plus 25 UNP) plus 10% (HATE VOTE for SLFP) 20 Ethnic Minority with the UNP) equals 85%.

So I hate to say citizen action groups are below 20% and in the minority and wont make a dent in the election but will probably swell the JVP voter base.

JVP should not overestimate (not hardcore but floating JVP) that group and become pompous after the election.

That is the maximum they can get going alone.

That is how they get over 10 million (and may even top the 15 million).

52 plus 50 plus 12 equals 114 millions and the poor SF will be left with only 6 million plus or minus 50,000.

I pity the Field Marshal, better luck next time.

There is another caveat, it is possible some of JVP vote will swing to DNA and THAT IS WHY MY SAFE ESTIMATE OF 10 MILLION FOR JVP.

In a way the presence of JVP and DNA are safety valves or else UNP would get a wallop like in 1977 which is not healthy for our body politics.

In anyway in haste and stupidity UNP has made a big blunder with the bond issue.
I think it lost its credentials on this single issue alone that an average hard core voter won't bother but the sensible voter has seen the real danger emerging.

Power corrupts it is true to SLFP, UNP and equally JVP.

That is why I want the citizen groups to swell up to 40% not 15% as of NOW.

Rev. Sobitha and Gaminie Viyangoda have more work ahead of them.

They should not let the rein slip away after the election.

Otherwise, it will be another 15 years of anarchy not good governance.

That is why I still maintain we should change the constitution lock stock and barrel.

I do not believe in Jathika Anduwa or National Government.

It is cock and bull story and the Citizen Action has to invigorate its action plan specially after the election.

The bizarre thing in my analysis is that mere 2 million votes gives the winning party double the seats 120 as against 60.

In percentage wise it is less than 2% and even a 1% swing will have a huge impact on my prediction and the electoral outcome.

So I advise everybody to take no bets on the election and I do not know what clandestine Mada Program is brewing towards the end of the campaign.

In actual fact, that is little over 1500 to 2500 votes in every electorate swinging the balance of power (this time it is the minority vote) and that is the very reason I am against the present system.

Equally, every vote is multiplied by three times due to preferential vote and it is only 500 to 800 votes that decide the fate of an election not the policies.

That is why I say nobody should get more than ONE VOTE.

It is mathematical aberration of highest magnitude which our voter and the politicians failed to grasp but it bloats the image of the candidate.

The total should be divided by three.

In other words 9000 means 3000 real people which our young economist Dr Harsha should ponder upon and not the bond scam if UNP wins the battle.

Monday, November 13, 2017

Bakthi, the Prayer

Bakthi, the Prayer
Long time ago,
One of my Indian friends,
Expressed the view
That there are 800 million
(Now over billion -give an indication of the time of this discussion-and one who reads this should investigate the doubling time of human population, especially India and China)
Indians in India,
And Equally there are
800 hundred million
Gods to Worship
What I am to do?
Whom, I should Worship?

My prompt and curt
Respond was
Worship nobody,
Just like me
As a simple Buddhist
BUT my dear friend
The problem in Ceylon is,
There are 8 million Buddhists
Looking for some sort of god
Or divine incarnation from India
(specially politicians)
In spite,
The majority
Of beings are non-abiding Buddhists

Going back in history,
Five thousand years or more
India the seat of divine incarnation
Of all gods
There were Rama, Ravana and Sita
Who are still revered as gods
And the Hanuman
Who built the Hunuman Way
Or the Rama-Satu Bridge
To recapture Sita
From Ravana who was a celebrity

All the gods
From Hindu to Judaism
Need Bakthi as a nutritive element
Or an animal sacrifice
Or some other sacrifice
For survival
Of the ancient conceptual wisdom

When Christ objected
To animal sacrifices
The Roman democrats
Crucified him
By majority Vote

If the same rule is applied
In the Modern Day
There won’t be any democrats
Or any meritocrats
Left in this world for posterity

The sacrifice of the Christ
Was the beginning
Of Human Misadventure
Of the history of gods
And their human counterparts
In the name of democracy

In this modern world
With so many adherents of its merits
Barring Russia and China
How come the democracy,
Still surviving?

In the midst of
Mayhem and Autocracy
From Myanmar to Zimbabwe
How come the U.N.O
Enshrine the human dignity
Devoid of god’s intervention?

The majority can be right
Or the majority can be wrong
Who is the best judge of all
It should not be
Or could not be
The All Mighty God

The God created,
The man with all impurities
And he is culpable of all
Human deeds
Good or Bad
 

Why NOT?

At the barest level
The love of god
Created the Evil by Exclusion
Of all other faiths of dissimilar gods
The breeding ground for hate and ill-will

It is just
The two side of the coin
On one side love and faith
The other side hate and enmity

If all the god loving men and women
Stop human sacrifices
As well as animal sacrifices
Many of the gods will die of starvation
Or the lack of nutritive Elements of Sustenance 

Or Hate of other Faiths

We can let the gods
Fight their own Holy Wars in Heaven
Then only,
This world would be a nicer place
For us to “Live and Let Live”

The energy saved then
Could be better utilized
For saving the Planet Earth
From pollution
Including the noise in decibels!

Saturday, November 11, 2017

The budget and its hidden (agenda) deficits


The budget and its hidden (agenda) deficits.

The total government expenditure has been estimated at Rs. 3, 001 billion for the next year. 
The budget deficit for 2018 is Rs 675 billion which is proposed to cover from foreign borrowing and domestic financing. 
Expected government revenue including grants is to be about Rs. 2,326 billion and its expenditure Rs. 3,982 billion.

There is an  extra payment of 306 million.
(982-675 = 306)

Nearly one billion of deficit of which one (1/3rd ) third is probably the loan installments (may be interest alone), I believe.

It is 42% of the total revenue or income!

Nearly 50% of the economy is swallowed by DEBTS!

One way to pay this is to close the legislature for five years and hand it over to the former Central Bank Governor from Singapore.

With few phone calls and family connections, he will make this country the heaven (or the haven) in five years for them and hell for the average citizen.

Monday, November 6, 2017

Bond Scam/S, Party Leadership, Premiership and the Constitution


Bond Scam/S, Party Leadership, Premiership and the Constitution


It was two years ago, I decided, that I should not take any part in political activity, blog wise!


Current developments makes me to wake up from slumber.


It was so putrid, talking about politics, sickens one's intellectual capacity.


I thought, it was the correct thing to do, now that the Rev. Sobitha Thera,s "Citizen Forum" or the "Third Force" (Please note NOT JVP) had emerged.


With the demise of Rev. Sobitha Thera the "Citizen Forum" has died a natural death.


There is a dearth of political activity to fill the gap.

There is a young guy trying his best politically speaking, BUT he is being suppressed by denying the web space (annual renewal and money and time).


Even Victor Ivan is relatively silent.

I will start with a bold statement.


Current Prime Minister is only good enough to hold the leadership of a corrupt party (after the demise of Dudley Senanayake).


That's all!


He is neither good to lead the country nor to administer a new constitution.


I will spell out the reasons.


To begin with he does not operate in or believe in democracy.


He does not believe in the current laws of the country that governs the "Central Bank".

He thinks he and his corrupt business cronies can (It used to be about 20 businesses running all the operations in this country before BUT  now few individuals) run the country at their will and fancy.


Current laws are adequate in many respects, even to deal with the bond ScamS (note the last S).


He wants to bring BOGUS new regulations to cover up the past corrupt deeds.


With few phone calls and 10 minutes extension of the bidding time (at the request of the politically appointed friend), if his cronies can swindle billions (forget about the Cabinet of Ministers), "What will happen he is given 5 years as the Finance Minister in effect?"


True that we are in debt crisis but who has given him the permission to bid for over 30 years?


Their term is only five years.


But their violation of all banking regulations, right, left and center goes well beyond their current term.


What a clout to our economy in five years.

 
I think, the IMF is right watching him.


He will use bit of his ill gotten IMF money for party activity and majority will be in the pockets of crony friends.


Watch out for his future activities.


He will use the new constitution making to make them look legal.

There is something in English in the constitution.

The Sinhalese translation will hoodwink the Sinhalayas.

The Tamil translation will be more vivid to TRAP the Tamils.

Thank God, we have a Post of President (he is not absolved from his responsibility) to overlook the Premiership.

He along with the PM should be investigated fully.

He is not immune.

The PM will use, reconciliation, constitution and financial regulations to fool the masses.


He will shower some goodies from the budget to fool the poor.


Beware!


He will be worse than JRJ when he gets the absolute majority.


Our voters are intelligent but they are NOT mature enough to organize as a "Third Force".


Now it the time to say enough is enough financial irregularities.

The best ploy to expedite action is to bring forward another "No Confidence Motion" before he puts these all into LIMBO by manufacturing a legal case in courts to scuttle any progress in Good Governance (including in the Central Bank).

He is very good in delaying and Procrastination, thinking that the average voter can be fooled. 

Good luck for our Politics! 

Friday, November 3, 2017

Why I wish not want to be a Journalist

Why I wish not want to be a Journalist
 

Why I wish not to be a journalist but if at all a philosopher is something that bothered me in my conscience. 
Becoming philosopher was an easy option since philosophers look at a problem in an analytical way and the many facets of interpretations of a (statement) problem and then leave behind no answers or solutions to the problem at hand.

The philosopher knows very well the current interpretation is invalid in the space of time dimension and leaving behind dogmatic answer neither is prudent nor an option.

But when it comes to Buddha and his interpretations of phenomena of life and things what is significant in a philosophical sense is that the Dhamma interpretation transcends the time, place and place.

So I delve into Dhamma in that sense to Samutta Nikaya (56:10) to repeat a verse told to monks would suffice to convince myself why I should not be a journalist.

This can be rephrased why a Buddhist monk should not be a journalist sans a conveyor of Dhamma message.

Buddha states 28 of his qualifications of vulgar talk to monks. 

Numerically in order as was said by the Lord Buddha are as follows.

Manifold vulgar talks are
1.    Talk about Kings (Presidents, Prime Ministers and Tyrants)
 

2.    Talk about Robbers (Robber barons, the multinational businessmen)
 

3.    Talk about Ministers
 

4.    Talk about armies
 

5.    Talk about dangers
 

6.    Talk about wars
 

7.    Talk about food
 

8.    Talk about drink
 

9.    Talk about cloths
 

10.    Talk about dwellings
 

11.    Talk about garlands
 

12.    Talk about perfumes
 

13.    Talk about relations
 

14.    Talk about conveyances (transfer of property)
 

15.    Talk about villages
 

16.    Talk about hamlets
 

17.    Talk about towns
18.    Talk about countries
 

19.    Talk about women
 

20.    Talk about heroes
 

21.    Talk about street talk
 

22.    Talk about ghosts
 

23.    Talk about ancestors
 

24.    Talk about gossip
 

25.    Talk about land
 


26.    Talk about sea
 

27.    Talk about gain
 

28.    Talk about loss

To this another four are added in another verse


1.    Eternity (unending)
 

2.    Annihilation (reduced to nothing)
 

3.    Sensual gratification
 

4.    Self mortification
What a Buddhist monk as a journalist should talk about are about greedlessness, hatelessness and undeludedness (wisdom) and any other talk is senseless and does not lead to liberation or salvation.

I do not think I need not further elaborate why I should not be a journalist?

This is not in anyway should be a hindrance to a young journalist who enjoys journalism as a hobby but when one writes something one must know to what category one falls into.


22nd May 2006

Friday, October 27, 2017

Water Plants, Global Warming and Ecosystem


Water Plants, Global Warming and Ecosystem


This piece might invariably become very big, so I decided to make a personal anecdote.

Of course, it has relevance to Global Warming and the Water Ecosystems.


The first to be effected by the above catastrophe are our domestic inland fish stock who cannot withstand temperatures above 84 degrees of Fahrenheit.


Mind you 84 was the highest temperature recoded in the Nineteen Seventies.


Added to this the algal bloom that is ably aided by our detergent industry and soap that percolate into our water bodies, kill our fish stock, right left and center.


Detergents effects the gills of fish and kill them.


Added to this the toxic agrochemicals that are dished out at lib without any control complete the devastation.


For ages my interest was water plants, not fish.

The Guppy Fish, I keep is my ready made answer to the mosquito problem.


All the Guppy Fish that were released by British, imported from Latin America during Malaria Epidemic cannot withstand the atmospheric degradation, currently.


We always blame British for our ills but always forget their contribution, especially in education.


If not for them there would not have been a science stream in education.
 
Strangely one cannot find a healthy batch of Guppies from an aquarium now.


I have an artificial figure of twenty, as my number for a minimum number of plants that should be in a particular location as an ecosystem, to call it a biodiversity hot spot.

In that sense, my roof top garden is a hot spot albeit artificial!

It is 2 (for binary division) and log one (ideally natural log) multiplied.

I counted the number of my plants by memory and I got stuck at 18.

My memory failing I decided to count them visually and stuck again at 18.

This is on top of the four water lilies I have (my latest interest).

Then I decided to investigate and found the the missing two.

One was barely surviving at the rim of a basin.

I quickly uprooted it and transferred it to my fish tank carefully leaving behind a little strand at its original site.

This was a tiny plant I cherished a lot.

Second one which had a beautiful flower was completely neglected by me.

I divided it into two lots and placed them appropriate pots to grow.

Now I come to the main topic of this piece.

It was the Vallisneria Plant.

I could not raise a reasonable stock of this plant.

I had grown it in a special plastic container.

It won't spread out from its tiny pot.

I carefully selected a two outgrowths and placed it in the front center of the tiny fish tank.

The expectation was one will grow to the right and the other to the left and placed it in such a way still connected to the mother plant.

Funnily one went in the direction of right, away from the light source.

It hit the glass and stopped not knowing to take a 90 degree turn.

The other outgrowth never grew.

The one growing to the right inhibited it.

I severed it from the mother plant and placed it halfway between the left corner and the middle of the fish tank.

After about five days of dormancy, it sprouted out a new leaf.

I am watching to see which way it grows.

Right or left.

That will be in my next piece.
You have to wait!

Postscript:
Mind you this is not one year (an annual) of collection.
I can revise the total number to 21 and five out of six varieties of lilies left.
Fifteen (15) years of painful propagation and caring for them.
If I go out on a two weeks holiday and come some will perish or outgrown by others competing for the limited space.

Unlike human they do not kill each other but localize themselves in their own nick of of the ecosystem, leaving tiny place for the less aggressive plants.
If you are busy and have limited time, I wonder whether you should try it.
It is far better for the aquarium vendor to visit you at regular interval if your tank is very big.
Experimenting with a tiny fish tank is more advisable but number of plants in the ecosystem will be limited.

Thursday, October 19, 2017

Are Sport injuries justified?

This is a revised edition of an old piece.
 
Are Sport injuries justified?


The facts which are 20 years old are given below.
 
1. Number one for fatal accidents (death) is riding a horse.
 

Accidents in horse riding exceed motor racing.
(Less strains, sprains, dislocations and fractures).
 

I have seen a ruptured spleen with the horse kicking the rider.  
I would not even mount an elephant (just the respect for this majestic beast), never mind, not in my life a horse.
I prefer, watching horse racing in a racing track and be the doctor in attendance (no betting allowed) for the jockeys and sign their books for a small fee.

That is high fun.

2. Number two is boxing (there is always irreversible and accumulating injuries that culminate in dementia).

  (read my blog piece "Is  boxing injuries justified."
3. Number three is Rugger.

4. Number 4 is martial arts.

5. Number five is soccer

6. Hockey my favorite is number six (I have had one injury as an adult, that was due to a guy who never played hockey before, hit my shin).

Never in my life, I have hit a guy with my stick intentionally but this guy's fingers were squashed by me with a single sharp trick, we use to warn the bad guys on field.

He never came again to play.

Of course, I have broken the front set of teeth of a non academic staff member unintentionally and he never returned but was duly referred to Dental School at Dangolla.

Then there was a beautiful burger lady who attracted (including the two guys mentioned above), the undesirables when (keeping goals, as a reserve player) we were practicing.

I was not a saint when I was young and in competitive sports.
It was true to most of us.  
But there was no criminal intent. 
She only had one go on her solar plexus with a tone down strait from my stick, the ball landing on the middle of her chest (if my aim was bit to the right or left it would have been disaster for her bulging breasts) and we practiced uninterrupted for the rest of the season and we emerged as the champions beating Colombo, in a penalty shoot out.
 
She never came to play hockey.  
I thank god for that!

Mind you, cricket comes last in the list of injuries.

I wonder how our ex-captain (I prefer him to be the ex-captain for many reasons) have had many injuries from his first international tournament.

My judgment, for his recurrence of injuries is his laziness and not practicing skills  off play and setting a bad example to the young players.
Other reason is introducing skills not appropriate for the age of the (young) players.
 
Mind you our players were the worse in fielding throughout his captaincy.

In any case he is too old to practice new skills now, just like, "One cannot train an old dog to learn NEW tricks".

Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Puppy Linux


Puppy Linux

It looks like Puppy Linux that comes from Australia seems to be in a dormant phase from 2015.

The developer is a dog lover and I am both a dog lover and the Puppy Linux Lover.

They were all tiny less than 100 MiB and I could carry them in a tiny Flash Stick.

There are many flavours now with 64 bit version of FatPup.
 
I had an old Toshiba computer lying idle and decided to update it.

It had both Knoppix and Ubuntu.

I had trouble with Legacy iso but the tahr 6.0.5 PAE iso did the job.

When writing the iso (I did this time with a rewritable CD, to erase it, if it fails) it said the image and the content did not match (even today).

The OLD Knoppix CD also had a broken file and wouldn't boot.

Now all these isos are SO big (not like when Linux was not popular) one cannot boot or install, if you do not have a DVD Driver.

Now that Puppy is migrating to 64 bits versions, the developers should not forget those users with 32 bit computers including Laptops that would be left high and dry.
The way way round is to have a PAE Version.

The bottom line is one should not discard the old hardware that did the donkey work for a 64 bit machine.

My only concern of the old computers is that that they are not energy efficient and consume lot of electricity.

That is why, I dismantled 10 computers for the two 64 bit computers BUT I still keep an old 32 bit computer.

It did the donkey work for me over a decade when electricity was cheap.

Mind YOU I did not donate any of those machines, simply dismantled them but dished out the hard disks and DVD drivers (to save energy!).