I listened to a YouTube presentation by a young guy with political sense and mathematical background.
It was a very interesting analysis.
He used the Bell Shaped Curve to illustrate his political idea.
It was in Sinhala and I intend to summarize that in English, here with my own comments.
This comment applied to the last voting pattern but the current trend is shown here.
How political future evolve depends on the temporary alliances made.
His analysis is made on traditional socialistic and capitalistic model but current politics would evolve round corruption and individualistic greed for power.
There is no ideological traits or trends in Ceylon in the present or in the past.
Race
Religion
Caste
Region
Shoddy business deals are the ground reality.
However, the business community was immune to politics since they sponsor both side of the aile.
His analysis in general goes as follows.
2.5% of Extreme Left
13.5% of JVP
34.0% of SLPP/SLFP/CP/LSSP (Mid Left)
34.0% of SJB/UNP (Mid Right)
13.5% of TNA
2.5% of Extreme right UNP (RW)
My tentative predictions are;
1. Possible General Election for the parliament.
2. No presidential election until 2025.
3. No party will get above 60 seats with an improbable high of 80.
4. Hung parliament.
5. Dollar will collapse soon after the election.
6. There is no Hero to get us out of this Mess.
7. USA/INDIA /CHINA are probing our weaknesses.
8. Only Russia can help us out of this Mess by giving free grain (free meal).
9. IMF will trap us in a debt recovery scheme.
10. With the collapse of Ukraine global politics will show a Sea Change.
Mind you, Russian president has claimed he would give free grain to the needy.
The reason for an early election is that RW cannot carry on like this and he cannot show any economic recovery, come next April New Year. He does not want to take the blame when things start to get worse. He is fishing in trouble waters and wants to carve out a political capital for himself, out of the total mess.
His proposed legislatures are an indication of his crafty insinuation.
He cannot present a viable budget.
Ceylon is a sinking (economic) ship and rats are running out !
Most of these corrupt politicians wil run away from Ceylon, if they cannot enter the parliament.
Parliament privileges are their only salvation.
Having said that I my earlier analysis went like this.
1. SLPP of 5% vote and about 10 seats.
2. SJB of 10% vote with 20 seats (down 40 from 60).
3. SLFP of 10% and about 15 seats.
3. UNP of 15% of about 30 seats.
4. TNA of 25% and 25 seats.
5. JVP of 30% vote bank and about 60 seats and a maximum of 80 seats.
In other words an increase of 10%.
6. Muslim parties of about 10 seats.
7. Balance seats of 55 seats spread over many minor parties.
8. Dis-franchised mass of 20% who will not bother to vote.
Mind you I have excluded Chandrika Factor which has a significant base in Gampaha. She has lost her father's party to Maru Sira.
If she come to the fray, which is certain, she will revive the party of her decreased husband Vijaya.
Guys like Rajitha, Kumar Welgama and Wijithamuni Zoyza who have bases in Kalutara and Badulla may align with Chandrika and would form a rag tag alliance and that will claim the majority of the 55 seats, which I failed to allocate to a particular party.
I forgot to entertain the 25 seats allocated to the list MPs. The majority will go to JVP of about 10 seats.
That means minor parties will have only 30 seats left to share. Unless these guys make an alliance with the big guys to claim a list MP post, they will be wiped from the electoral map.
I name three of them Vasudava, Dinesh and Bandula.
The parties which will lose their respective voter base are;
1. SJB
2. SLPP
3. UNP
4. Wira Wansa, Holman Pora, Peratu Gami and many of the 81 parties listed with the Election Commission.
These proportions would vary if they make alliances.
I do not see any prospect (except at party levels) of viable and strong alliances made.
Each party would go SOLO to test the ground reality but voters have no TRUST on any party or any personality.
BOLO is my catch phrase!
We are Void of any national heroes but all that are left are cardboard figures of politics, just like the ones who were ousted by the mass upheaval.
By the way, I am away from the country during the polls and I would leave the New Election Commission to breakdown the final toll in his final analysis.
The ballot paper would be as big as a News Paper Page and the Government Printer would make lot of mistakes this time round having not appropriating the paper allocation. He may have money but no paper to print.
I am totally against digital voting (we are not ready yet).
We can show the entire world that the old way of democracy is fast losing its grip when the entire world except Russia is in a political mess.
This is where China, India and United States would fiddle with our politics.
Only country who would not fiddle with our affairs is Russia and that is the only country which we can bank on Food Aid.
My revised and probable outcome is as follows.
Outliers of 5% would be RW/UNP and Extreme left of Pertu Gami. The balance 95%;
1. 60 seats with 40% vote base.
2. Uncommitted 20% may even abstain from voting.
3. 35 seats for SJB with 15% vote base
4. 25 Seats for SLFP 10% vote base.
5. 25 seats for TNA with 10% vote base.
6. 55 seats at stake and is the realm for rag tag parties.
7. 25 seats will be for list MPs.
8. There are over 170 or more registered parties to choose.
9. 10 seats for Muslim parties including outliers.
My guess is except RW/UNP, no party or business entity would spend money on the election campaign.
The reason is no real returns!
