My earlier prediction going by previous election statistics was very simple.
Nobody gets 50%.
At best J.V.P (N.P.P) would get only 45% of the total vote and they are short of 5%.
That amounts to massive 700,000 votes.
Even if they muster portion of Northern Tamil votes with the help of India and RAW, the J.V.P. cannot get that 5%.
Unlike my previous predictions, I have lot of factors without bias going in favour of my prediction.
They include;
1.The prudent and astute voter does not believe any of these jokers.
2. Their resolve cannot be bought in like the Indian voter. They take the money and vote to his or her choice at the time of the voting..
3. India cannot even manipulate the Estate Sector.
They have been cheated from Thondaman times.
India is good at lying to their own voters, so be it.
4. There is already election fatigue.
5. Importantly, there is also economic fatigue.
6. Just wait for unexpected turn of events.
Many candidates including Rajitha Senaratne would probe their own popularity.
7. These Wild Cards have local base value.
8. Kumara Welgama has gone dormant (medical reasons) but still has significant voter base but his son cannot change (not like the father like son scenario) evolving political events.
9. Chandrika is a Compulsive Liar (just like her father) and has no Credibility at ground level.
She is fishing in trouble waters.
She thinks she has a base at Nittambuwa and Gampaha but I have my doubts.
10. Shrewdly and gradually, R.W. and S.L.P.P have scuttled the enthusiasm created by the spontaneous citizen uprising.
Factual Estimates
There are about 1.35 million votes estimated.
Successful candidate would have to earn 67, 50,000 votes and J.V.P (N.P.P) has to increase the total vote capacity by 62,50,000 votes from it's logical base of 5,00,000 votes.
It is humanly impossible for the N.P.P to raise this amount of votes by "Simple Baila".
"Baila" in local terms is gullible lies.
If at all it is a Protest Vote not a Yes Vote.
That is the bottom line.
This has never happened in World History of Politics.
There are more spoilers in this election than a probable winning candidate.
Ordinary people are generally less focused on politics and nobody who comes to power has a plan to get us out of our economic problems and the clever politicians won't spent their money (this time round) but a few "Rich but Stupid" guys would enter the fray including Nagaya or Nagananda Kodituwakku to inflate the election expenses and avoid paying TAXES (from the capital owned by the candidate). to the coffers.
Everybody including candidates, the winning (very unlikely without a second preference) contestant and the voters would be poorer at the end of the election.
The scenario of Second Preference vote has not been tested before and it is a very dicey affair.
My advice is not to cast the second vote.
Why elect a candidate of second choice?
I will not be interested in voting this time round.
Anyway, I am out of the country and I won't bother to come home, at the time of the election.
Two more points of interest.
1. There will be a Definite Drop (D.D.) in the percentage of voting of high of 80% in the past to a significant low of 70%.
That is about nearly 14,00,000 votes.
2. Lot of people have left the country due to economic meltdown.
They won't come to vote not only due to apathy but more importantly due to cost of the air tickets.
These two factors alone would drop the 50% bar to 45% (whoever tops the list does not matter).
Lot of money and time is wasted and there is a sinister attempt to postpone the election on flimsy or bogus reasons.
"Sutra Puncha" will fail again and his tactics are pretty obvious, even to a stupid voter.
"SutraPuncha" should be ousted by all costs.
10% man will fail miserably to less than 10%.
But 3% man will jack up its base at least to 40% a significant achievement in Real Politics!
