Monday, July 20, 2015

Probable Election Outcome-2015

Probable Election Outcome-2015

Prediction of the outcome of the current parliamentary election is becoming easy.

There are many reasons for this.

Firstly, the myth that the previous regime was impregnable was thrown out of the window.

Secondly, the myth that blue camp will comeback with a vengeance is also becoming a mirage.

Thirdly, the average voter can be taken as a sucker is fast disappearing. 

He or she cannot be fooled anymore.

The reason for this sea change is obvious.

Everybody is itching for change after nearly 21 years of the same same thing, faces and same slogans.

They haven't got a slogan to bark with.

The change is becoming inevitable.

The real reason for this is now that the voters got an added advantage of having the collective citizen action groups making headway even overtaking the party slogans.

What actually happened in January was UNP hijacked the mass euphoria “that we can make it change” attitude of the floating vote that came out through the citizen action groups.

It is no longer the floating vote that make the swing in the vote.

The citizen action group is a valid currency.

Simply because many do not want to wear the party cap or the jacket which was propagated before the presidential election.

The electorate in January had shown even without the banners they can make an effective change.

This was all due to mobile phones and IT technology.

IT had a big impact in January which the previous incumbent failed to capitalize.

Instead, they believed in the using the NIB to hack the opposition, which the wickieleaks emails are showing.

So my prediction is as follows.

If we had the old system it would have been the repeat of 1977.

SLFP should thank the old fox JRJ for much softer outcome even in defeat.

That is why they did not want to change the constitution after 21 (plus 17 by the UNP) years but tried to strengthen its strangle on the state with One Man SHOW.

Total polling strength

1. UNP 52,000,000 (700,000 less mostly to Tamil Parties and JVP)

43% of the total

2. UPFA 50,000,000 (loss of 7,000,000, mostly to JVP and the rest to UNP)

40% of the total

3. JVP 1,000,000 ( mostly gain from SLFP)

7% of the total

4. DNA 500,000

3% of the total

5. Tamil Parties 1,000,000

7% of the total

Note; No party gets over 50% of the vote.

Probable Seats

1. UNP 90 plus 32 bonus seats = 122 (mostly from Colombo, Kandy, Nuweraeliya and from other districts)

2. UPFA 41 plus 14 bonus seats = 55 (mostly from Ratnapura, Kurunagala and south)

3. JVP 11 plus 5 bonus seats = 16 (5 from Colombo 2 from Kandy 4 from other districts)

4. DNA 4 plus 1 bonus seat = 05 (3 from Colombo and 1 from Kandy)

5. Tamil Parties 22 plus 5 bonus seats = 27

The major reason for this change is minorities will vote with the UNP and the the first time voters from the majority will be with the UNP not with SLFP.

The outcome will be biased by the new vote and the minorities which the previous regime failed to attract due to their arrogance and intransigence.

Also majority of the Buddhists who voted them IN will change due to BBS.
If JVP worked with UNP (very unlikely NOW) they would have got over 45 seats.
UNP should thank them for not joining them. 

Real down side for JVP is that it could not beat the SLFP into third place. 

It is no point to be in opposition for years on end with die hard old thinking hats and slogans.
 Theire strategy is too rigid even to think as the alternative government in opposition.

This is similar to the Liberal Party in UK.

I pity for the party members.

That is why most of the active members move out of the party and join other parties or form new parties (that is also a mistake and a futile attempt) after some time.
 It is too late for them in this election.
There is nothing lost for the voter who just vote for it since he or she does not like the two big parties and has no strong conviction of the party winning in a big way.

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