Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Political Number Crunching-Factual not Scientific

Political Number Crunching-Factual not Scientific

Analysis on my predictions

Since, I was getting bored watching the TV and listening to political speeches, I did a little analysis of behaviour pattern of our voters and made a bold prediction few days ago.

Political behaviour is not scientific but bizarre in Sri-Lanka.

Any analysis has a very big margin of error BUT if one takes the party glasses that blinds the average voter away one can make a prudent guess and it is not a wild gamble as in a betting table.

It has some degree of cricketing collapse.

If top order falls there is no bottom to hold on to.

It is just the reversal of the distribution of the number of seats in the parliament but blue changing to green after 21 years.

Green changing to blue took 17 years in 1994.

The addition five years to blue was mainly due to the success in the internal war and defeating of the LTTE.

The change is inevitable in whatever the way one looks at.

SLFP has become a corrupt party.

It cannot hold any more to its values, if it ever had values other than racism.

It is about to bust.

I must say all the parties have very undemocratic constitutions.

The leader reins and stooges listen.

The order of the dictatorial management of parties, the worst to better are,

1. JVP is the worst. 
It does not tolerate alternative views and resent criticism within as well as from outside.

That is why JVP will never come into power on its own.

2. Muslim Congress comes second.

3. SLFP very close third with intolerant Buddhist bias.

4. UNP the worst under JRJ but somewhat down while in opposition but will roost again if it comes into power with an absolute majority.

Democratic Tamil parties succumbed under LTTE but it seems only Tamil parties have a semblance of democracy, especially the newly aligned.

The verdict of the presidential election was an excellent example.

They have suffered long enough and they value the power of the ballot and are coming to proper senses unlike SLFP. 

The voter behaviour is shaky and converts are around 30% for SLFP and 25% for UNP.

It used to be 42% at worst for UNP but with the emergence of Tamil and Muslim parties it sank to 25%.

Interestingly 42% was the JRJ's Achilles Tendon which he based our bizarre constitutional system to stay in power eternally BUT he did not have a method to resurrect once the power is lost.

That is why they were in opposition for 21 years.

I have analyzed based on those values and one has to ignore the 2010 swing as a one off reaction after the ethnic war ending (1994 was due to decapitation of leadership ladder of the UNP by LTTE and the political turning point (was mismanaged to a large extent by not solving the national or the ethnic problem) that comes rarely with our bizarre electoral system.

Total voting strength was taken as 120 millions.

The role of citizen action group/s is not analyzed and that can only be done after the election not before since it is a new but healthy phenomenon.

Let us say it is the X-Factor, just like the Hela Urumaya factor in 2004.

I think most of those votes neither will go to SLFP nor UNP but to JVP by default (rather lack of proper alternative).

SLFP-30% of 120 is 36 millions.
How this goes up to 50 millions is the question that needs to be answered.

UNP-25% of 120 is 30 millions.

How this goes to 52 million is easy to predict.

The ethnic minority will vote for UNP.

Let us take it as 20% (25% plus 8% is the real value, nearly 35% which is very significant in terms of total vote and Buddhist percentage is 65%) that would really vote in predominantly Sinhala areas.

It is 24 millions.

One cannot brush it off.

So 30 plus 24 is 54 millions.

 (54 millions is 45% of the total which is very unlikely and 52 million is 43% which the base rate at worst scenario for UNP)

I have down graded it by 2 millions as the margin of error.

How does the 36 becomes 50 (they got 57 in the presidential election)?

52 millions is 41.5% of the total and it is very unlikely it will fall below 40% which is 48 million votes)

It is based on every ten there is one which is a HATE VOTE or in fact a negative vote.

There is 12 million and I add 2 million more as my margin of error.

I am convinced an average Sinhala citizen (I have downgraded it to 10% which is not scientific) even though Buddhist (it is against the Dhamma) thrive on JEALOUSY and HATE and it is a solid base which over the years SLFP could harp on and catered for.

I want the voter to use less hate but more wisdom and that is the very reason for the emergence of Citizen Action Groups, which I think is nearly 15-20% and I want it to become 40%.

30 (SLFP) plus 25 UNP) plus 10% (HATE VOTE for SLFP) 20 Ethnic Minority with the UNP) equals 85%.

So I hate to say citizen action groups are below 20% and in the minority and wont make a dent in the election but will probably swell the JVP voter base.

JVP should not overestimate (not hardcore but floating JVP) that group and become pompous after the election.

That is the maximum they can get going alone.

That is how they get over 10 million (and may even top 15 million).

52 plus 50 plus 12 equals114 millions and the poor SF will be left with only 6 million plus or minus 50,000. 

I pity the Field Marshal, better luck next time.

There is another caveat, it is possible some of JVP vote will swing to DNA and THAT IS WHY MY SAFE ESTIMTE OF 10 MILLION FOR JVP.

In a way the presence of JVP and DNA are safety valves or else UNP would get a wallop like in 1977 which is not healthy for our body politics.

In anyway in haste and stupidity UNP has made a big blunder with the bond issue.

I think it lost its credentials on this single issue alone that an average hard core voter won't bother but the sensible voter has seen the real danger emerging.

Power corrupts it is true to SLFP, UNP and equally JVP.

That is why I want the citizen groups to swell up to 40% not 15% as of NOW.

Rev. Sobitha and Gaminie Viyangoda have more work ahead of them.

They should not let the rein slip away after the election.

Otherwise, it will be another 15 years of anarchy not good governance.

That is why I still maintain we should change the constitution lock stock and barrel.

I do not believe in Jathika Anduwa or National Government.

It is cock and bull story and the Citizen Action has to invigorate its action plan specially after the election.

The bizarre thing in my analysis is that mere 2 million votes gives the winning party double the seats 120 as against 60.

In percentage wise it is less than 2% and even a 1% swing will have a huge impact on my prediction and the electoral outcome.

So I advise everybody to take no bets on the election and I do not know what clandestine Mada Program is brewing towards the end of the campaign.

In actual fact, that is little over 1500 to 2500 votes in every electorate swinging the balance of power (this time it is the minority vote) and that is the very reason I am against the present system.

Equally, every vote is multiplied by three times due to preferential vote and it is only 500 to 800 votes that decide the fate of an election not the policies.

That is why I say nobody should get more than ONE VOTE.

It is mathematical aberration of highest magnitude which our voter and the politicians failed to grasp but it bloats the image of the candidate.

The total should be divided by three.

In other words 9000 means 3000 real people which our young economist Dr Harsha should ponder upon and not the bond scam if UNP wins the battle.

No comments:

Post a Comment